Game Recap: PIT 2, DET 4, December 31, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PIT2

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

DET4

DET beat PIT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.88 expected goals to 2.52. D. O'Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Compher had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Lyon stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	0	1	2
DET	1	1	2	4

1st 7:52DETJ. Berggren0.13 xG
1st 18:29PITD. O'Connor0.15 xG
2nd 3:41DETP. KanePP0.07 xG
3rd 3:18PITD. O'ConnorPP0.30 xG
3rd 14:26DETJ. CompherPP0.31 xG
3rd 19:46DETD. LarkinEN0.84 xG

Team Stats

PITDET

25Shots on goal25

2.52Expected goals3.88

54Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play2/3

9Hits18

13Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways7

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.52 xGDET 3.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT24 on goal, 2 scored

DET24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. O'Connor	LW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	14:02	1:53
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	21:15	5:11
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	11:09	0:22
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:52	3:20
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	18:17	2:29
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	4	0	4	-1	0	17:25	3:05
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:55	3:17
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:55	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	13:29	2:13
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	21:06	2:28
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:37	3:04
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:36	0:22
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	19:51	0:01
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	24	21	3	.875	58:33	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	18:23	2:38
J. Compher	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:50	1:26
J. Berggren	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	16:00	1:25
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	18:53	2:32
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	15:49	1:22
J. Veleno	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:06	0:20
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:37	2:36
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:27	2:36
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	13:38	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:30	0:19
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:56	1:29
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:36	0:21
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:44	1:39
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	24:00	2:45
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	23:17	0:22
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	2	21:32	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	19:52	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBryan Rust PIT Plays near home (born in Pontiac)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.3, DET 3.4	PIT 2, DET 4
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	PIT 29.7, DET 29.3	PIT 25, DET 25
Win chance	DET 51%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	0	1.12	1	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.8	1	0.86	0	32%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.7	3	0.99	1	34%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.6	2	0.81	1	30%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	4	0.75	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.79	1	15%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	2	0.81	1	25%	1
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	0	0.66	0	24%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.9	4	0.92	2	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.9	1	0.82	0	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	0	0.63	0	10%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.61	1	24%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	1	0.39	1	14%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	3	0.45	0	15%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.4	4	0.31	2	13%	2
DET M. Kasper	1.3	2	0.27	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.36	2	16%	1
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.38	0	5%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	4	0.55	2	19%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.44	0	17%	0
DET T. Motte	1.2	0	0.20	0	11%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
DET A. Copp	1.1	1	0.45	0	16%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	0	0.36	1	6%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	0	0.39	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.38	0	16%	0
PIT P. Joseph	1.1	1	0.24	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	1	0.36	0	10%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.23	0	13%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	2	0.25	0	11%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.0	3	0.33	0	4%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	2	0.29	1	12%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.20	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.