Game Recap: PIT 4, DET 1, January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT4

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

DET1

PIT beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 1.48. PIT outshot DET 31 to 12. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Rakell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Skinner stopped 11 of 12.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	2	0	2	4
DET	0	1	0	1

1st 3:44PITB. Rust0.09 xG
1st 17:30PITE. Chinakhov0.17 xG
2nd 15:06DETA. DeBrincat0.05 xG
3rd 19:00PITR. RakellEN0.84 xG
3rd 19:28PITC. DewarEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

PITDET

31Shots on goal12

3.56Expected goals1.48

56Shot attempts42

265v5 shots on goal10

0/2Power play0/2

20Hits21

13Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways18

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.56 xGDET 1.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT30 on goal, 4 scored

DET12 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	18:17	2:35
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	6	2	2	+2	0	19:02	2:35
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	5	2	1	+2	0	18:56	2:34
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:12	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:40	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:25
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	12:26	0:27
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:02	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:43	1:20
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:07	0:27
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:00	1:33
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	2	2	1	2	0	+2	0	18:49	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	22:26	0:27
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	2	20:13	0:11
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	20:59	2:35
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:29	0:01
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	12	11	1	.917	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:45	1:46
D. Larkin	C	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:49	1:46
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:34	1:58
A. Copp	C	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	16:52	1:06
P. Kane	RW	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:45	1:46
E. Finnie	C	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	15:05	1:04
M. Appleton	C	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	14:54	0:10
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:12
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:32	0:07
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:06	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:52	0:57
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:22	1:04
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	4	2	-2	2	26:59	2:02
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	21:35	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	21:24	0:12
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:03	1:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:18	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	29	27	2	.931	58:16	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:47R. Rakell15:52B. Rust15:18

Line 2R. McGroarty12:25B. Kindel12:22E. Chinakhov11:59

Line 3A. Mantha12:23J. Brazeau11:27T. Novak11:44

Line 4B. Lizotte12:24N. Acciari11:35C. Dewar11:06

Pair 1K. Letang19:59B. Kulak19:05

Pair 2R. Shea16:13J. Ivany16:02

Pair 3E. Karlsson15:16P. Wotherspoon16:13

DET

Line 1P. Kane13:47A. DeBrincat14:45A. Copp13:41

Line 2D. Larkin14:18L. Raymond14:13E. Finnie13:29

Line 3J. Compher12:31M. Appleton13:52M. Rasmussen11:39

Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:55N. Danielson10:34M. Kasper11:39

Pair 1M. Seider22:28S. Edvinsson20:01

Pair 2B. Chiarot18:59A. Sandin-Pellikka15:06

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker12:16A. Johansson13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBryan Rust PIT Plays near home (born in Pontiac)1 G, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.1, DET 3.3	PIT 4, DET 1
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.4, DET 29.0	PIT 31, DET 12
Win chance	DET 53%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	4	0.89	1	33%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.0	1	1.03	0	37%	0
DET P. Kane	2.5	1	0.82	0	24%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	5	0.83	1	31%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	1	1.02	2	34%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	6	0.73	1	27%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.4	0	1.00	0	28%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	0	0.62	0	10%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	0	0.68	0	13%	0
DET E. Finnie	2.0	1	0.48	0	20%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	0	0.34	1	16%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	1	0.45	1	9%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	3	0.60	0	23%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	1	0.54	0	17%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.50	0	19%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.46	0	18%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	3	0.29	1	13%	1
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.43	0	19%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.4	0	0.42	0	10%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	0	0.39	0	16%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.3	3	0.30	1	14%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.3	0	0.27	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	2	0.34	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	0	0.22	0	7%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.40	0	16%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.22	1	5%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.30	0	11%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.33	1	15%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.22	0	11%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.24	2	3%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.9	2	0.14	0	3%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.9	1	0.29	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.25	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.