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Game Recap
PIT2
FLA3
FLA beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.97. A. Lundell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Knight stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 0:36FLAG. Forsling0.03 xG
- 2nd 11:09PITS. CrosbyPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 8:48FLAM. TkachukPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:20PITR. RakellPP0.21 xG
Team Stats
PITFLA
31Shots on goal33
3.97Expected goals3.62
64Shot attempts72
185v5 shots on goal23
2/7Power play1/3
15Hits28
10Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes28
8Giveaways7
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.97 xGFLA 3.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 6:59 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:08 | 7:02 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 5:07 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:55 | 6:57 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:33 | 6:55 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:06 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:10 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:53 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:08 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 4:23 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 4:10 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 3:25 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 6:56 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:42 | 4:19 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:08 | 0:13 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:35 | 0:11 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 64:16 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 21:03 | 3:38 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:32 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:20 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14:20 | 1:51 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 1:40 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:45 | 3:04 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:36 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:47 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 3:34 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:33 | 1:26 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 2:07 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:42 | 3:40 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 64:35 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.0, FLA 3.4 | PIT 2, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.5, FLA 32.6 | PIT 31, FLA 33 |
| Win chance | FLA 58% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 5 | 1.03 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 5 | 1.01 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 0 | 1.04 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.5 | 2 | 1.13 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.4 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.1 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 6 | 0.62 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.