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Game Recap
PIT5
FLA3
PIT beat FLA 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.44 expected goals to 4.76. FLA outshot PIT 37 to 17. S. Crosby led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Marchand had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. T. Jarry stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 6:24PITS. CrosbyPP0.02 xG
- 2nd 6:36PITR. Rakell0.32 xG
- 2nd 8:26FLAB. MarchandPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 15:24PITB. Kindel0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:24FLAS. ReinhartPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 4:49PITC. Dewar0.17 xG
- 3rd 11:06FLAB. Marchand0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:49PITS. CrosbyPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
PITFLA
17Shots on goal37
3.44Expected goals4.76
43Shot attempts81
145v5 shots on goal28
2/2Power play2/3
18Hits26
19Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways9
9Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.44 xGFLA 4.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:51 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:51 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:29 | 0:51 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:43 | 0:51 |
| B. Kindel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| F. Hallander | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:51 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 2:31 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:31 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 2:31 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:01 | 0:31 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:39 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:39 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:39 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:39 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:31 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:27 | 0:39 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 17 | 12 | 5 | .706 | 56:18 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 2A. Mantha15:28J. Brazeau15:12E. Malkin14:17
Line 3B. Kindel11:30T. Novak10:17F. Hallander10:08
Line 4C. Dewar9:51B. Lizotte9:46N. Acciari10:56
Pair 2C. Clifton17:00C. Jones16:00
Pair 3E. Karlsson16:44P. Wotherspoon16:35
FLA
Line 1E. Luostarinen16:36A. Lundell16:53B. Marchand16:13
Line 2C. Verhaeghe16:54S. Reinhart17:31E. Rodrigues15:14
Line 3J. Boqvist12:13M. Samoskevich13:04S. Bennett14:18
Line 4A. Greer6:29L. Kunin5:57J. Gadjovich5:41
Pair 1A. Ekblad20:56G. Forsling21:26
Pair 2S. Jones17:02N. Mikkola17:12
Pair 3J. Petry13:19U. Balinskis14:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.6, FLA 3.3 | PIT 5, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 25.5, FLA 30.5 | PIT 17, FLA 37 |
| Win chance | FLA 61% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 4 | 1.07 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.5 | 7 | 0.88 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.1 | 2 | 0.84 | 3 | 28% | 2 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT F. Hallander | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT C. Jones | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.