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Game Recap
PIT5
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
LAK2

PIT beat LAK 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.05 expected goals to 3.59. LAK outshot PIT 28 to 19. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Laferriere had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Murashov stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT3115
LAK1102
  1. 1st 1:52PITT. Novak0.29 xG
  2. 1st 5:10PITT. Novak0.29 xG
  3. 1st 9:55LAKC. Perry0.47 xG
  4. 1st 19:31PITE. ChinakhovPP0.16 xG
  5. 2nd 3:07LAKA. LaferrierePP0.06 xG
  6. 2nd 17:13PITS. Crosby0.08 xG
  7. 3rd 18:44PITS. CrosbyEN0.85 xG

Team Stats

PITLAK
19Shots on goal28
3.05Expected goals3.59
49Shot attempts71
165v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play1/3
11Hits29
19Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways11
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.05 xGLAK 3.59 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdPIT goal, 1:52PIT goal, 5:10LAK goal, 9:55PIT goal, 19:31LAK goal, 3:07PIT goal, 17:13PIT goal, 18:44

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT18 on goal, 5 scored
LAK28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. MalkinC033101+2016:550:51
S. CrosbyC202300+2418:504:01
T. NovakC202201+2014:394:01
B. KindelC011211+2016:194:00
V. KoivunenRW011001-1012:500:41
E. ChinakhovRW101100+2012:470:45
R. RakellRW000021+2020:003:55
C. DewarC0000200014:510:00
N. RobertsonLW0001030014:390:00
B. LizotteC0001100014:160:00
H. LapierreC000110-1012:120:00
J. BrazeauRW000000-1011:260:44
K. LetangD022303+3018:410:48
E. KarlssonD011001+2023:553:58
D. CarlileD011130+2019:240:00
S. GirardD000104-1218:580:06
S. StastneyD000001+1017:200:00
K. KorczakD000212-1016:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Murashov28262.92960:00Win
A. Silovs000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. PanarinLW0113000421:123:52
A. KempeRW011220-1019:173:52
A. LaferriereRW101710+1018:393:52
C. PerryRW1013100014:510:00
Q. ByfieldRW0001000019:323:52
T. MooreLW0001010016:200:00
E. HaulaLW000050-2015:130:00
S. LaughtonC000042-2012:000:00
J. ArmiaRW000111-1011:500:00
K. ConnorsC000042-1011:170:00
A. TurcotteC000131-3010:550:00
A. LeeLW000211-2010:520:00
E. GustafssonD011301-2020:463:52
M. AndersonD0110200018:350:00
D. DoughtyD000133-1221:290:00
B. ClarkeD000103-1018:290:00
B. DumoulinD0002100017:480:00
J. EdmundsonD000010-1017:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper18144.77857:59Loss
A. Forsberg000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin14:57S. Crosby14:36R. Rakell14:37
Line 2E. Chinakhov11:26B. Kindel11:38T. Novak10:30
Line 3V. Koivunen12:09H. Lapierre11:18J. Brazeau10:42
Line 4C. Dewar10:22N. Robertson10:31B. Lizotte9:36
Pair 1S. Stastney17:20E. Karlsson17:03
Pair 2K. Letang15:54D. Carlile14:46
Pair 3S. Girard15:56K. Korczak13:44

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin14:30A. Laferriere12:01A. Kempe12:05
Line 2C. Perry12:50Q. Byfield12:58T. Moore12:40
Line 3J. Armia11:11K. Connors11:15E. Haula11:35
Line 4S. Laughton11:12A. Turcotte10:15A. Lee9:53
Pair 1D. Doughty17:56J. Edmundson15:41
Pair 2B. Clarke16:12E. Gustafsson14:25
Pair 3B. Dumoulin16:03M. Anderson14:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 21 overs hit (33%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
LAK A. Kempe2.5-155+1262Under
LAK A. Laferriere2.5-115+1007Over
LAK A. Panarin2.5-135+1153Over
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+130-1351Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+105-1200Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+136-1603Over
LAK B. Clarke1.5+105-1151Under
PIT B. Kindel1.5-150+1402Over
PIT C. Dewar1.5-105–0Under
LAK C. Perry1.5+118-1353Over
PIT E. Chinakhov1.5-130+1141Under
LAK E. Haula1.5-150–0Under
PIT E. Karlsson1.5-170+1360Under
PIT E. Malkin1.5-140+1251Under
LAK J. Armia1.5+125–1Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+128-1503Over
PIT N. Robertson1.5+105-1151Under
LAK S. Laughton1.5+110-1500Under
LAK T. Moore1.5-135+1121Under
PIT T. Novak1.5-135+1222Over
PIT V. Koivunen1.5+110–0Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.1, LAK 3.2PIT 5, LAK 2
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalPIT 26.7, LAK 27.7PIT 19, LAK 28
Win chanceLAK 51%PIT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Kempe2.921.05138%0
LAK A. Panarin2.931.27137%0
LAK A. Laferriere2.870.79128%1
PIT R. Rakell2.600.78029%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.410.75028%0
PIT S. Crosby2.230.97229%2
LAK T. Moore2.210.55022%0
PIT E. Malkin2.210.78324%0
PIT B. Kindel2.020.51122%0
PIT E. Chinakhov1.810.47119%1
PIT N. Robertson1.810.38018%0
PIT T. Novak1.720.63222%2
LAK C. Perry1.730.50123%1
PIT E. Karlsson1.700.62112%0
LAK B. Clarke1.610.4609%0
LAK E. Haula1.500.45018%0
LAK J. Armia1.310.37016%0
PIT C. Dewar1.300.35014%0
PIT K. Letang1.330.3627%0
LAK S. Laughton1.300.31013%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.200.33014%0
LAK D. Doughty1.210.4409%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.230.4619%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.100.2205%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.110.34012%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.000.40113%0
PIT D. Carlile1.010.1816%0
PIT S. Girard0.910.3106%0
LAK A. Lee0.920.27011%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.910.33011%0
PIT H. Lapierre0.910.36010%0
PIT S. Stastney0.900.1804%0
PIT K. Korczak0.820.3204%0
LAK M. Anderson0.700.2315%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.720.2204%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.