Game Recap: PIT 4, MIN 1, October 30, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT4

FinalThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

MIN1

PIT beat MIN 4-1, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 2.51. B. Rust led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Dewar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. T. Jarry stopped 26 of 27.

Team Stats

PITMIN

34Shots on goal27

3.06Expected goals2.51

57Shot attempts59

305v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play0/4

23Hits23

15Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.06 xGMIN 2.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT33 on goal, 3 scored

MIN27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	16:15	0:13
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	15:32	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:47	0:13
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	12:42	0:00
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:11	0:13
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:20	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:15	0:00
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:40	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	14:40	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:01	0:00
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	13:35	0:13
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:15	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	2	2	3	4	2	+2	0	22:31	0:00
R. Shea	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	21:54	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	7	3	0	0	24:17	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:57	0:13
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:45	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	21:38	5:55
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:29	3:26
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	15:50	2:05
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:33	3:33
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	18:48	5:29
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	17:19	4:31
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:14	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:04	4:30
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:02	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	12:46	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	9:45	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:45	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	22:41	3:47
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:59	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:27	2:31
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:53	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:14	4:13
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	33	30	3	.909	59:49	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1A. Mantha15:21J. Brazeau14:01E. Malkin14:23

Line 2B. Rust13:22F. Hallander12:51S. Crosby13:22

Line 3B. Lizotte11:45C. Dewar11:38N. Acciari11:13

Line 4T. Novak12:39B. Kindel11:58V. Koivunen12:15

Pair 1K. Letang19:15R. Shea18:50

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:43P. Wotherspoon19:29

Pair 3M. Dumba15:37O. Pickering13:18

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman16:00V. Hinostroza14:14M. Foligno13:02

Line 2M. Johansson13:34M. Rossi14:52K. Kaprizov15:32

Line 3J. Ek12:35M. Boldy12:55V. Tarasenko9:34

Line 4Y. Trenin12:46T. Pitlick9:45D. Yurov9:45

Pair 1J. Brodin21:59B. Faber18:41

Pair 2Z. Buium16:45D.Jiricek13:20

Pair 3J. Spurgeon14:01J. Middleton18:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces MIN, his team until Mar 20246 SOG
Old teamJustin Brazeau PIT Faces MIN, his team until May 20251 SOG
HometownTommy Novak PIT Plays in his hometown1 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, MIN 3.3	PIT 4, MIN 1
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.8, MIN 30.3	PIT 34, MIN 27
Win chance	MIN 54%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.8	4	1.41	1	47%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.6	1	1.09	0	35%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.3	2	0.78	0	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.8	2	0.87	2	32%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	2	1.09	0	34%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	1	0.56	0	23%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.80	0	14%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	1	0.69	0	25%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	0	0.81	1	25%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.8	1	0.50	0	12%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	3	0.40	2	8%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.7	2	0.33	0	7%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	3	0.50	1	18%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	1	0.61	1	22%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	2	0.57	1	22%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.6	1	0.30	1	15%	1
PIT F. Hallander	1.5	1	0.35	0	13%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	1	0.39	0	17%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.3	5	0.39	1	16%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	6	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.3	1	0.40	0	11%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.23	0	12%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.2	2	0.29	0	12%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.2	2	0.40	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.36	0	16%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.32	0	14%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT M. Dumba	1.0	2	0.16	0	3%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	2	0.19	0	10%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	1	0.18	0	7%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.8	1	0.20	0	11%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	2	0.18	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	2	0.20	2	5%	1
PIT O. Pickering	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.