Game Recap: PIT 0, MTL 4, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT0

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat PIT 4-0, with the chances close: 4.20 expected goals to 3.75. PIT outshot MTL 31 to 21. J. Anderson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Anderson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Fowler stopped 31 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	0	0
MTL	2	1	1	4

1st 16:41MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.18 xG
1st 18:49MTLO. Beck0.06 xG
2nd 12:14MTLJ. AndersonSH0.16 xG
3rd 17:02MTLJ. AndersonEN0.29 xG

Team Stats

PITMTL

31Shots on goal21

3.75Expected goals4.20

69Shot attempts49

245v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play1/1

24Hits16

13Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways8

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.75 xGMTL 4.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT31 on goal, 0 scored

MTL21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	3	2	0	-2	0	21:09	4:12
B. Rust	RW	3	1	2	-2	0	21:02	4:15
A. Mantha	RW	2	1	0	-3	0	18:29	4:16
T. Novak	C	4	2	1	0	0	17:52	1:33
R. Rakell	RW	5	1	1	-3	0	17:48	4:14
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	0	0	14:40	1:32
J. Brazeau	RW	0	3	0	-1	0	14:28	1:31
K. Hayes	RW	2	1	0	0	2	13:44	1:35
N. Acciari	C	1	1	1	0	0	13:01	0:13
R. McGroarty	RW	1	1	0	0	0	12:32	0:13
C. Dewar	C	2	1	0	0	0	12:20	0:13
V. Koivunen	RW	2	0	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	2	1	1	-3	0	24:29	3:48
K. Letang	D	0	1	2	-1	0	21:48	1:59
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	1	1	-1	0	20:06	0:13
R. Shea	D	1	1	0	0	0	17:08	0:13
B. Kulak	D	0	0	3	0	0	15:32	0:00
C. Clifton	D	1	6	0	0	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	20	17	3	.850	55:38	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Anderson	RW	2	0	2	4	2	1	+2	0	16:12	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	19:13	0:51
O. Kapanen	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	18:10	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	16:33	0:51
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:25	0:51
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:58	0:00
O. Beck	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:18	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	16:26	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:50	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:21	0:51
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1:57	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	2	23:50	0:51
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	26:48	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:22	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	21:53	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	13:19	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	31	31	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:29B. Rust13:35T. Novak15:18

Line 2R. McGroarty12:19B. Kindel11:58V. Koivunen12:05

Line 3A. Mantha11:00J. Brazeau11:48R. Rakell10:13

Line 4N. Acciari11:57C. Dewar11:16K. Hayes10:14

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon17:29E. Karlsson16:20

Pair 2R. Shea16:25C. Clifton15:18

Pair 3K. Letang16:39B. Kulak15:32

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:35Z. Bolduc14:13C. Caufield13:29

Line 2A. Texier13:28J. Anderson11:07J. Slafkovský13:56

Line 3B. Gallagher12:42O. Beck13:18J. Veleno10:52

Line 4O. Kapanen14:10I. Demidov13:30

Pair 1A. Carrier17:38L. Hutson20:42

Pair 2M. Matheson18:03N. Dobson16:55

Pair 3A. Xhekaj13:19A. Engstrom11:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKris Letang PIT Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, MTL 3.0	PIT 0, MTL 4
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	PIT 27.0, MTL 26.7	PIT 31, MTL 21
Win chance	MTL 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	1	0.88	1	34%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.8	3	0.90	0	33%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	3	1.13	0	36%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	5	0.79	0	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.76	0	15%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.3	1	0.46	0	20%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	1.02	1	29%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.60	0	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	2	0.64	1	22%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	2	0.67	0	25%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.8	1	0.52	0	23%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.8	0	0.48	1	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	0	0.42	0	9%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.6	2	0.37	0	15%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	1	0.49	0	10%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.6	1	0.31	0	13%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.37	1	15%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.5	0	0.44	0	18%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	4	0.51	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	0	0.91	1	9%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	0	0.75	0	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	4	0.34	2	18%	2
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.42	0	19%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	2	0.28	0	12%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	2	0.26	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.41	0	14%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	2	0.27	0	8%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.33	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.9	2	0.13	1	7%	1
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.24	0	6%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.7	2	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.