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Game Recap
PIT4
FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night
MTL5

MTL beat PIT 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.72 expected goals to 3.63. J. Anderson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Stastney had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Fowler stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT2114
MTL2305
  1. 1st 2:08PITE. KarlssonPP0.05 xG
  2. 1st 2:41MTLO. Kapanen0.04 xG
  3. 1st 3:05MTLJ. Anderson0.09 xG
  4. 1st 7:28PITT. Novak0.15 xG
  5. 2nd 1:54MTLA. Texier0.14 xG
  6. 2nd 2:21MTLC. Kreider0.22 xG
  7. 2nd 3:45PITR. Rakell0.13 xG
  8. 2nd 13:06MTLJ. Anderson0.06 xG
  9. 3rd 16:49PITS. Crosby0.53 xG

Team Stats

PITMTL
29Shots on goal27
3.63Expected goals2.72
68Shot attempts47
225v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play0/3
13Hits22
9Blocked shots22
13Penalty minutes13
15Giveaways13
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.63 xGMTL 2.72 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdPIT goal, 2:08MTL goal, 2:41MTL goal, 3:05PIT goal, 7:28MTL goal, 1:54MTL goal, 2:21PIT goal, 3:45MTL goal, 13:06PIT goal, 16:49

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT27 on goal, 4 scored
MTL27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CrosbyC123200+3220:233:08
R. RakellRW112210+3021:582:51
T. NovakC112300+2017:582:50
E. MalkinC000100-1217:541:52
B. KindelC000312-1016:481:37
E. ChinakhovRW000200-2014:221:53
V. KoivunenRW000002-2213:163:07
B. LizotteC000030-1512:550:00
C. DewarC000011-1012:300:04
H. LapierreC000010-2010:340:04
A. KuzmenkoLW000110-2010:001:34
N. RobertsonLW000001-109:590:04
E. KarlssonD123400+1023:373:07
S. GirardD000210-1021:010:04
K. LetangD000211-1018:441:36
D. CarlileD000101-3018:440:00
K. KorczakD000131-1218:210:04
S. StastneyD000500+1015:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Murashov27225.81557:40Loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. AndersonRW213211+3014:580:02
C. KreiderLW112500+4012:101:55
P. DanaultC011121-1019:570:09
J. EvansC011130+4017:400:00
A. TexierLW1013000014:322:16
O. KapanenC101202+1211:042:01
O. BeckC011131+158:510:00
F. XhekajLW011022+147:340:00
C. CaufieldRW000210-2018:565:32
A. NewhookC000001-2018:543:42
J. SlafkovskýLW000202-2017:233:55
Z. BolducRW000210-1016:363:58
L. HutsonD022114+4023:474:12
A. XhekajD011021+1013:400:00
K. GuhleD000153-2024:050:30
A. CarrierD000112-2021:190:00
N. DobsonD000101+2220:491:48
A. EngstromD000201+1010:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler29254.86260:00Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:34R. Rakell14:31T. Novak13:41
Line 2E. Malkin12:46B. Kindel11:43E. Chinakhov11:46
Line 3H. Lapierre10:30V. Koivunen10:05A. Kuzmenko8:26
Line 4C. Dewar8:46N. Robertson8:29B. Lizotte8:58
Pair 1S. Stastney14:48E. Karlsson14:08
Pair 2S. Girard17:33K. Korczak15:26
Pair 3K. Letang12:55D. Carlile15:20

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský12:30C. Caufield12:18A. Newhook11:33
Line 2J. Anderson11:35J. Evans12:23C. Kreider10:15
Line 3P. Danault14:46Z. Bolduc12:05A. Texier11:43
Line 4O. Beck8:50F. Xhekaj7:34O. Kapanen9:03
Pair 1A. Carrier15:57K. Guhle17:19
Pair 2L. Hutson18:33N. Dobson15:50
Pair 3A. Xhekaj11:18A. Engstrom10:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5+140-1602Under
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+150-1754Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+120-1352Under
MTL N. Dobson2.5+142-1751Under
PIT R. Rakell2.5+110-1302Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+135-1742Under
MTL A. Newhook1.5-110-1100Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+130-1403Over
PIT B. Kindel1.5-156+1403Over
PIT E. Chinakhov1.5-135+1202Over
PIT E. Malkin1.5-160+1251Under
MTL J. Anderson1.5-115-1052Over
MTL K. Guhle1.5+120-1551Under
PIT K. Letang1.5+120-1352Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-110-1051Under
PIT N. Robertson1.5-115-1250Under
MTL O. Kapanen1.5+105-1202Over
MTL P. Danault1.5+105-1201Under
PIT T. Novak1.5-115-1103Over
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5-130+1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.1, MTL 3.3PIT 4, MTL 5
Total goals6.59
Shots on goalPIT 27.8, MTL 26.2PIT 29, MTL 27
Win chanceMTL 53%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.820.90036%0
PIT R. Rakell2.620.68228%1
PIT S. Crosby2.320.90330%1
PIT B. Kindel2.230.49021%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.120.75025%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.140.67313%1
PIT E. Malkin2.110.70023%0
PIT E. Chinakhov2.020.48020%0
MTL N. Dobson2.010.55013%0
PIT T. Novak1.830.56221%1
PIT N. Robertson1.800.36019%0
MTL A. Newhook1.600.58024%0
MTL J. Anderson1.620.39319%2
MTL L. Hutson1.410.85212%0
PIT K. Letang1.420.3808%0
MTL P. Danault1.410.52118%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.420.48019%0
PIT C. Dewar1.400.31013%0
MTL C. Kreider1.350.54224%1
MTL A. Texier1.330.43116%1
MTL O. Kapanen1.320.36116%1
MTL K. Guhle1.210.40010%0
PIT D. Carlile1.210.2007%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.210.41018%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.100.34012%0
MTL J. Evans1.110.43115%0
PIT H. Lapierre1.000.35011%0
PIT S. Stastney0.950.1904%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.900.31012%0
PIT S. Girard0.920.2905%0
MTL F. Xhekaj0.900.1616%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.3908%0
PIT K. Korczak0.810.2703%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.720.1102%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.700.0913%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.