NJD beat PIT 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 1.78. NJD outshot PIT 27 to 12. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Markstrom stopped 12 of 12.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 17:32NJDS. Noesen0.26 xG
- 3rd 7:47NJDN. Hischier0.16 xG
- 3rd 18:27NJDT. MeierEN0.80 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.78 xGNJD 3.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:33 | 1:54 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:35 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:22 | 2:32 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:07 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 15:38 | 2:25 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:28 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 1:52 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:09 | 1:43 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25:03 | 2:02 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:07 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:15 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 59:05 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:54 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:08 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:56 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:50 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:29 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 1:06 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:11 | 0:27 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:06 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:49 | 1:24 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:04 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 10 | 19:38 | 0:04 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:32 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.9, NJD 3.6 | PIT 0, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 26.9, NJD 32.8 | PIT 12, NJD 27 |
| Win chance | NJD 60% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.9 | 2 | 1.30 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 3 | 1.04 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.5 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.