Game Recap: PIT 1, NSH 2 (OT), November 14, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT1

Final/OTFri, Nov 14, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat PIT 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.09 expected goals to 1.91. NSH outshot PIT 30 to 17. J. Saros stopped 16 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	0	1	0	0	1
NSH	0	0	1	1	2

2nd 13:49PITE. Malkin0.03 xG
3rd 18:50NSHF. Forsberg0.07 xG
OT 0:44NSHS. Stamkos0.10 xG

Team Stats

PITNSH

17Shots on goal30

1.91Expected goals3.09

36Shot attempts65

175v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/1

10Hits17

14Blocked shots7

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways21

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 1.91 xGNSH 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT17 on goal, 1 scored

NSH30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:45	2:33
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:10	2:40
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:03	2:32
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:36	2:38
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:40	1:22
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:51	1:20
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:52	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:46	1:28
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:57	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:34	1:27
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:33	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:56	2:40
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	22:46	1:20
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:06	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:46	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	16:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	30	28	2	.933	60:44	OT loss
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	19:24	0:49
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:27	1:02
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	18:59	0:58
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	18:31	1:08
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:36	0:52
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	17:06	0:48
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:17	1:02
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:06	1:02
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:41	0:09
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:27	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:35	0:58
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:18	0:10
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:56	1:02
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:11	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:45	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	12:55	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	17	16	1	.941	60:37	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Kindel16:58S. Crosby16:47B. Rust15:49

Line 2A. Mantha13:31T. Novak14:14E. Malkin14:03

Line 3C. Dewar11:53J. Koppanen12:49B. Lizotte12:05

Line 4V. Koivunen12:18P. Tomasino10:37K. Hayes10:07

Pair 1K. Letang21:19R. Shea20:27

Pair 2E. Karlsson18:03P. Wotherspoon19:16

Pair 3R. Graves15:36M. Dumba13:33

NSH

Line 1L. Evangelista16:44R. O'Reilly15:46F. Forsberg18:02

Line 2S. Stamkos16:04J. Marchessault17:16E. Haula13:40

Line 3F. Svechkov13:31M. Wood13:57M. Bunting15:15

Line 4M. McCarron10:44O. Wiesblatt10:10

Pair 1N. Blankenburg17:58N. Hague19:47

Pair 2B. Skjei15:06N. Perbix15:29

Pair 3S. Stastney15:33A. Wilsby11:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTommy Novak PIT Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.1, NSH 3.1	PIT 1, NSH 2
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	PIT 27.2, NSH 29.5	PIT 17, NSH 30
Win chance	NSH 50%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	3	0.99	1	37%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.7	4	0.93	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	1	1.16	0	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	2	0.79	0	32%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	3	0.59	0	19%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	1	0.83	0	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	1	0.82	1	34%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	3	0.90	1	25%	1
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	1	0.53	0	22%	0
NSH M. Wood	2.1	1	0.55	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	4	0.77	0	26%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.48	1	12%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.56	0	21%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	3	0.47	0	19%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	0	0.44	0	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.6	1	0.41	0	9%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	0	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.4	2	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.47	0	18%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.4	0	0.37	0	13%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	1	0.31	0	12%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.3	0	0.32	0	7%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	0	0.35	0	8%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.23	0	6%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	3	0.20	0	4%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	3	0.23	0	8%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	0	0.17	1	4%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.8	1	0.17	0	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.24	0	7%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	2	0.24	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.