Game Recap: PIT 4, NYI 5 (OT), February 3, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT4

Final/OTTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat PIT 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.62 expected goals to 3.68. PIT outshot NYI 35 to 23. B. Horvat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Brazeau had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. I. Sorokin stopped 31 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	1	2	1	0	4
NYI	2	0	2	1	5

1st 12:09PITA. Mantha0.25 xG
1st 18:41NYIB. Horvat0.71 xG
1st 19:56NYIM. Schaefer0.04 xG
2nd 3:52PITE. Chinakhov0.18 xG
2nd 14:09PITB. Rust0.04 xG
3rd 8:37NYIM. Barzal0.03 xG
3rd 10:40PITJ. Brazeau0.04 xG
3rd 15:24NYIR. Pulock0.06 xG
OT 0:52NYIB. Horvat0.24 xG

Team Stats

PITNYI

35Shots on goal23

3.68Expected goals2.62

63Shot attempts46

315v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/2

25Hits22

10Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways14

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.68 xGNYI 2.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT34 on goal, 4 scored

NYI23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Brazeau	RW	1	1	2	6	1	2	+2	0	12:59	1:41
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	19:05	2:14
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	2	18:17	2:16
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	16:47	1:42
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	14:18	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:31	1:06
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:44	2:51
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:41	2:18
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:13	1:42
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:22	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	2	22:27	2:38
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	20:23	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:12	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	23:00	0:07
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:50	1:25
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	16:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	23	18	5	.783	60:52	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	2	1	3	3	2	2	+5	0	24:35	3:57
M. Barzal	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+4	0	24:16	3:33
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:09	3:15
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:51	2:22
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	14:47	1:38
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:45	0:45
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	15:40	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:49	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:44	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	11:58	0:27
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:17	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	3:04	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	1	2	2	0	3	+1	0	27:59	3:14
R. Pulock	D	1	0	1	2	3	4	-1	0	20:43	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:12	0:03
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	22:09	0:46
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	13:39	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	12:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	35	31	4	.886	60:22	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:31R. Rakell14:11B. Rust14:51

Line 2E. Malkin14:12E. Chinakhov14:44T. Novak13:23

Line 3A. Mantha12:25B. Kindel12:31J. Brazeau11:18

Line 4C. Dewar10:44B. Lizotte10:00N. Acciari10:13

Pair 1E. Karlsson18:57P. Wotherspoon20:14

Pair 2B. Kulak18:06R. Shea17:14

Pair 3C. Clifton14:32I. Solovyov14:09

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat17:36M. Barzal19:21O. Palat12:21

Line 2C. Cizikas12:47M. Gatcomb12:41K. MacLean11:14

Line 3E. Heineman14:48J. Pageau13:13S. Holmstrom12:40

Line 4A. Lee12:47J. Drouin11:31

Pair 1M. Schaefer22:08R. Pulock18:34

Pair 2A. Pelech17:28T. DeAngelo20:51

Pair 3S. Mayfield12:17C. Soucy11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.1, NYI 3.0	PIT 4, NYI 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	PIT 27.6, NYI 27.2	PIT 35, NYI 23
Win chance	PIT 51%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.74	3	33%	2
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.67	0	26%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	1	0.70	1	28%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	3	0.92	1	31%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	0	0.47	0	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	2	0.52	1	23%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	4	0.81	3	23%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	3	0.66	1	13%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	3	0.75	0	24%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	2	0.62	2	18%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	2	0.53	0	11%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.8	3	0.40	1	18%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	2	0.37	0	16%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	2	0.56	1	22%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.5	2	0.44	1	18%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	0	0.51	0	23%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	6	0.38	2	18%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.60	1	24%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	2	0.27	1	4%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	2	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	0	0.24	1	5%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.52	0	14%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.2	1	0.37	1	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.34	1	6%	1
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.19	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	0	0.45	0	16%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.21	0	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	2	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	2	0.19	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.