Game Recap: PIT 8, NYI 3, March 30, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT8

FinalMon, Mar 30, 2026Every game that night

NYI3

PIT beat NYI 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.90 expected goals to 2.35. PIT outshot NYI 32 to 23. A. Mantha led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Silovs stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	5	3	8
NYI	0	3	0	3

2nd 1:27NYIA. LeePP0.09 xG
2nd 2:56NYIM. Barzal0.15 xG
2nd 6:41PITE. Soderblom0.29 xG
2nd 9:17NYIB. Schenn0.37 xG
2nd 11:01PITR. RakellSH0.16 xG
2nd 13:29PITR. Shea0.03 xG
2nd 14:35PITA. Mantha0.13 xG
2nd 17:18PITA. Mantha0.15 xG
3rd 6:06PITA. Hayes0.34 xG
3rd 7:54PITR. Rakell0.19 xG
3rd 16:16PITB. Rust0.19 xG

Team Stats

PITNYI

32Shots on goal23

4.90Expected goals2.35

64Shot attempts53

305v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play1/2

16Hits16

17Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways13

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 4.90 xGNYI 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT32 on goal, 8 scored

NYI23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Mantha	RW	2	1	3	4	0	0	+4	0	18:13	1:42
J. Brazeau	RW	0	3	3	3	3	3	+3	0	14:23	0:00
B. Rust	RW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	18:41	1:42
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	16:48	1:42
R. Rakell	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+3	2	16:28	1:42
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:08	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	14:25	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	12:19	0:00
A. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:49	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	11:44	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	5	11:32	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:58	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+3	0	20:39	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+3	0	19:43	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	20:50	0:00
R. Shea	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:04	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:41	1:42
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	18:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	-2	2	18:21	1:33
C. Ritchie	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	13:57	0:53
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	-2	0	16:09	0:56
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	-2	0	15:38	1:21
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	2	14:55	1:24
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:06	1:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	0	17:41	1:15
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	15:03	0:51
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:55	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	12:38	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:29	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:12	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	-2	0	17:48	1:13
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	22:23	0:13
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	22:14	1:21
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	20:31	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:19	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	14:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	29	22	7	.759	47:54	Loss
D. Rittich	3	2	1	.667	12:06

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1A. Mantha16:31J. Brazeau14:23R. Rakell13:16

Line 2S. Crosby14:20E. Chinakhov14:44B. Rust15:42

Line 3N. Acciari11:02C. Dewar12:59E. Soderblom11:32

Line 4T. Novak11:24B. Kindel12:34A. Hayes11:49

Pair 1K. Letang17:48S. Girard20:08

Pair 2C. Clifton18:01R. Shea17:13

Pair 3P. Wotherspoon18:30E. Karlsson16:04

NYI

Line 1B. Schenn14:18M. Barzal16:30C. Ritchie13:04

Line 2B. Horvat14:56E. Heineman14:58A. Lee14:17

Line 3K. MacLean12:55M. Gatcomb11:29C. Cizikas11:19

Line 4S. Holmstrom12:39J. Pageau13:14O. Palat11:12

Pair 1C. Soucy18:45A. Pelech19:44

Pair 2M. Schaefer19:31R. Pulock18:24

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:28A. Boqvist16:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.9, NYI 3.0	PIT 8, NYI 3
Total goals	5.9	11
Shots on goal	PIT 27.5, NYI 28.5	PIT 32, NYI 23
Win chance	NYI 52%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.3	3	0.86	0	36%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.8	4	0.85	0	24%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	1	0.80	2	30%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	3	0.74	2	28%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.6	1	0.61	1	26%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.5	3	0.57	0	24%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.75	0	14%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.3	0	0.45	0	24%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	3	0.87	2	23%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	3	0.84	2	29%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.9	4	0.65	3	25%	2
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	3	0.39	1	18%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	0	0.50	1	21%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.63	1	22%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.6	0	0.41	2	8%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	1	0.30	0	5%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.32	1	14%	0
PIT A. Hayes	1.4	1	0.19	1	11%	1
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	0	0.51	2	20%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	0	0.58	0	23%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	3	0.34	3	16%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	2	0.24	1	12%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.50	1	18%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.35	0	7%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	2	0.21	1	10%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	2	0.25	0	11%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NYI C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.21	0	7%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	0	0.28	1	5%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	1	0.19	0	11%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	2	0.28	2	3%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.26	2	7%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.26	1	4%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.