PIT beat NYR 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.94 expected goals to 1.56. J. Brazeau led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Brazeau had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. A. Silovs stopped 25 of 25.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.94 xGNYR 1.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:20 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:36 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:10 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:01 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:53 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:45 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:33 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:39 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:39 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:20 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 22:47 | 1:05 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:50 |
| C. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:19 |
| H. Brunicke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 | 0:50 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:47 | 2:58 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:32 | 2:22 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:05 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:47 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:53 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:39 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:12 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:15 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:40 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:12 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:42 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:25 | 2:40 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:15 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:05 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:15 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:37 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
NYR
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.9, NYR 3.4 | PIT 3, NYR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.9, NYR 29.1 | PIT 31, NYR 25 |
| Win chance | NYR 59% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 2 | 1.19 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 7 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 0 | 1.06 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 6 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 4 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 0.7 | 6 | 0.18 | 2 | 9% | 2 |
| PIT C. Jones | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.