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Game Recap
PIT2
OTT3
OTT beat PIT 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.97 expected goals to 1.77. T. Chabot led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Bunting had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Ullmark stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:34OTTT. Chabot0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:40PITB. Lizotte0.24 xG
- 3rd 6:38OTTD. Batherson0.33 xG
- 3rd 12:42PITK. Letang0.01 xG
- OT 1:46OTTB. Tkachuk0.05 xG
Team Stats
PITOTT
27Shots on goal31
1.77Expected goals2.97
55Shot attempts56
275v5 shots on goal21
0/0Power play0/2
36Hits32
11Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes0
19Giveaways17
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 1.77 xGOTT 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:22 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 61:46 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:49 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:49 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:42 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:11 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:11 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:21 | 2:49 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:11 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 1:11 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:59 | 1:11 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:42 | 2:49 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:07 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 61:46 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, OTT 3.2 | PIT 2, OTT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.1, OTT 32.4 | PIT 27, OTT 31 |
| Win chance | OTT 51% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 4 | 1.03 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.2 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 4 | 0.98 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 6 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.5 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.