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Game Recap
PIT6
SEA3
PIT beat SEA 6-3, with the chances close: 2.69 expected goals to 3.17. PIT outshot SEA 32 to 23. C. Dewar led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Skinner stopped 20 of 23.
Team Stats
PITSEA
32Shots on goal23
2.69Expected goals3.17
63Shot attempts48
245v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play1/3
23Hits20
10Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways16
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.69 xGSEA 3.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:28 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 2:27 |
| C. Dewar | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:04 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 11:58 | 0:04 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:43 | 3:30 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 2:16 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:30 | 3:32 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:35 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:27 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 2:25 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:04 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:06 |
| B. Kulak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 20:27 | 2:05 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:58 | 3:53 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:04 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:50 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Meyers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:08 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:08 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:51 | 2:29 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:44 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 2:31 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:20 | 2:44 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:46 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:20 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:52 | 2:45 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:33 | 2:30 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 25:18 | 2:50 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:08 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:33 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:19 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 58:08 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 2T. Novak13:16E. Chinakhov13:19E. Malkin12:54
Line 3A. Mantha10:53B. Kindel10:49J. Brazeau8:55
Line 4N. Acciari9:10B. Lizotte9:21C. Dewar8:15
Pair 1P. Wotherspoon17:12R. Shea17:40
Pair 3C. Clifton12:17R. Graves12:01
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle15:19M. Beniers16:29K. Kakko11:03
Line 2R. Winterton11:13B. Meyers10:48J. Schwartz9:55
Line 3C. Stephenson11:43F. Gaudreau12:44E. Tolvanen11:20
Pair 1A. Larsson19:17V. Dunn18:04
Pair 2B. Montour19:18R. Lindgren14:49
Pair 3R. Evans12:29J. Oleksiak10:11
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, SEA 3.0 | PIT 6, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.4, SEA 26.2 | PIT 32, SEA 23 |
| Win chance | PIT 53% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 2 | 1.06 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kulak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.