Game Recap: PIT 3, SJS 0, October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT3

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

SJS0

PIT beat SJS 3-0, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 2.43. E. Malkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Mantha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. T. Jarry stopped 31 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	2	3
SJS	0	0	0	0

2nd 7:35PITS. Crosby0.04 xG
3rd 7:02PITA. Mantha0.15 xG
3rd 19:38PITE. MalkinEN0.47 xG

Team Stats

PITSJS

27Shots on goal31

3.14Expected goals2.43

52Shot attempts64

255v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play0/2

11Hits25

21Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.14 xGSJS 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT26 on goal, 3 scored

SJS31 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	19:04	1:20
E. Malkin	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:31	1:20
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	17:12	1:20
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	5	0	2	+1	0	13:53	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	13:03	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	19:28	1:20
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	14:39	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:01	0:00
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	12:25	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:51	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	21:50	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:30	1:20
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	22:03	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	20:19	0:00
C. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	0	18:51	0:00
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	31	31	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	2	0	0	-1	0	19:52	2:08
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	0	-1	0	18:24	2:34
W. Eklund	LW	3	1	1	-1	0	18:15	2:27
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	2	-1	0	16:40	2:29
J. Skinner	LW	3	1	0	-2	0	16:17	0:46
A. Gaudette	RW	1	1	0	-2	0	15:45	0:00
C. Graf	RW	2	2	2	-1	0	15:15	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	2	0	1	-1	0	13:53	0:49
W. Smith	C	1	3	1	0	0	13:44	2:31
T. Dellandrea	C	0	2	1	0	0	13:30	0:00
M. Misa	C	2	1	0	-1	0	12:56	0:46
B. Goodrow	C	3	0	1	0	0	11:04	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	2	4	0	0	0	24:16	0:00
D. Orlov	D	2	2	0	0	0	23:14	2:40
V. Desharnais	D	1	3	2	-1	0	20:21	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	1	-2	2	17:12	0:05
S. Dickinson	D	3	2	0	-1	0	16:48	0:40
V. Iorio	D	2	2	2	-1	0	13:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	26	24	2	.923	57:32	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust17:07S. Crosby16:31R. Rakell14:59

Line 2A. Mantha13:53J. Brazeau13:03E. Malkin13:18

Line 3N. Acciari12:25C. Dewar12:09B. Lizotte11:59

Line 4B. Kindel12:25T. Novak10:51F. Hallander11:35

Pair 1K. Letang19:40R. Shea19:35

Pair 2C. Jones16:59H. Brunicke17:15

Pair 3P. Wotherspoon17:14E. Karlsson16:17

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg16:44W. Eklund15:28T. Toffoli13:51

Line 2A. Gaudette14:52M. Celebrini14:50J. Skinner14:38

Line 3B. Goodrow11:04C. Graf13:02T. Dellandrea12:10

Line 4P. Kurashev12:11M. Misa11:17W. Smith10:14

Pair 1D. Orlov19:34M. Ferraro22:56

Pair 2V. Desharnais19:01S. Dickinson15:14

Pair 3N. Leddy17:07V. Iorio13:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Nedeljkovic SJS Faces PIT, his team until Apr 202524 saves on 26

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.8, SJS 2.8	PIT 3, SJS 0
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	PIT 30.7, SJS 26.7	PIT 27, SJS 31
Win chance	PIT 64%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT B. Rust	3.0	1	1.03	0	35%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	1	0.86	0	26%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	1	0.75	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	1	1.25	2	36%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.89	1	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.76	1	16%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	1	0.91	2	28%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.0	1	0.55	1	12%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	3	0.55	0	24%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	3	0.69	0	20%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	1	0.71	0	21%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.7	2	0.46	0	9%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	5	0.64	1	24%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	0	0.40	1	19%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	2	0.45	0	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	0	0.43	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	2	0.30	0	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.47	0	15%	0
PIT F. Hallander	1.1	0	0.35	0	14%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.23	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	2	0.25	0	3%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.0	1	0.28	0	14%	0
PIT C. Jones	0.9	3	0.22	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	3	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	2	0.12	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	2	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.28	0	4%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.12	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.