Game Recap: PIT 3, SJS 2 (SO), November 11, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT3

Final/SOWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night

SJS2

PIT beat SJS 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.37 expected goals to 3.58. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Crosby had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Murashov stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	0	1	1	3
SJS	0	0	2	0	2

1st 8:57PITS. Girard0.06 xG
3rd 3:28PITB. KindelPP0.12 xG
3rd 11:32SJSM. Celebrini0.09 xG
3rd 15:49SJSM. Marchment0.21 xG

Team Stats

PITSJS

35Shots on goal36

3.37Expected goals3.58

66Shot attempts66

295v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/5

14Hits18

13Blocked shots12

12Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways20

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.37 xGSJS 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT34 on goal, 2 scored

SJS36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	2	20:04	2:11
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	-2	2	19:29	2:43
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	18:22	2:22
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	-1	0	20:18	2:33
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:33	0:15
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	15:28	1:54
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:26	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:08	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:04	2:21
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:50	1:49
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	10:28	1:44
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:12	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	5	1	0	-2	0	27:04	2:20
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	20:36	2:12
S. Girard	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	+1	2	19:31	0:16
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:40	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18:17	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	36	34	2	.944	65:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	2	25:14	4:53
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	22:18	6:41
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:52	3:33
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	22:43	6:38
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:01	7:04
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:12	1:39
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	14:55	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:35	0:17
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:51	2:02
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	7:16	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5:56	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	21:47	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:50	0:01
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	2	24:46	5:58
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:14	0:01
E. Pohlkamp	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	15:59	2:04
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:42	2:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	35	33	2	.943	65:00	OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin16:04S. Crosby15:50R. Rakell13:44

Line 2C. Dewar11:11R. McGroarty10:02B. Lizotte10:10

Line 3N. Robertson11:38B. Kindel12:50E. Chinakhov12:12

Line 4T. Novak9:51V. Koivunen10:01J. Brazeau8:44

Pair 1E. Karlsson18:19S. Stastney19:19

Pair 2S. Girard16:44K. Korczak14:13

Pair 3K. Letang15:08D. Carlile11:20

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini17:30W. Smith14:42M. Misa15:37

Line 2M. Marchment13:19K. Sherwood13:48A. Wennberg11:54

Line 3T. Toffoli9:49T. Dellandrea11:42I. Stenberg13:51

Line 4Z. Ostapchuk5:02C. Graf10:22B. Goodrow4:43

Pair 1J. Trouba17:01S. Dickinson17:32

Pair 2D. Nurse18:02M. Kesselring15:27

Pair 3D. Orlov13:26E. Pohlkamp13:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 18 overs hit (67%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	-125	+105	2	Under
PIT B. Kindel	2.5	+145	-180	2	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+148	-175	5	Over
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	-102	-105	3	Over
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+125	-140	7	Over
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+110	-115	3	Over
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	-165	+135	4	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-165	+138	3	Over
SJS I. Stenberg	1.5	-111	+100	4	Over
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-125	+105	4	Over
PIT K. Letang	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-120	+100	2	Over
SJS M. Misa	1.5	-105	-110	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	-135	+115	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-155	+125	2	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-130	+103	2	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+275	-350	1	Over
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1250	-3500	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+390	-700	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
SJS E. Pohlkamp	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
PIT J. Brazeau	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+310	-475	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
PIT R. McGroarty	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1450	-2800	1	Over
PIT S. Stastney	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+475	-900	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under

6 of 21 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+175	-218	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+225	-375	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+132	-150	1	Over
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+195	-218	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+191	-235	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+285	-375	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-125	+104	1	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+235	-295	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+195	-209	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+155	-165	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+104	-125	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+240	-335	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+330	-375	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+130	-165	1	Over

9 of 21 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+140	-170	2	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-180	+145	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+145	-170	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+116	-135	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+195	-230	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-165	+135	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-180	+160	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+190	-250	1	Over
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+155	-165	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-160	+131	1	Over

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+325	-500	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
PIT J. Brazeau	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+140	-185	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+240	-325	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+195	-275	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+240	-290	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS Y. Askarov	25.5	-106	-120	33	Over
PIT S. Murashov	24.5	-106	-120	34	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-145	+100	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneMacklin Celebrini SJS 1 point from 200Got there: 1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
MilestoneMason Marchment SJS 1 goal from 100Got there: 1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.5, SJS 3.1	PIT 3, SJS 2
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.9, SJS 26.9	PIT 35, SJS 36
Win chance	PIT 56%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	4.0	2	1.46	2	42%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	3	0.89	1	34%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.6	3	0.97	1	32%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	7	1.14	0	35%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.3	3	0.91	1	28%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.3	2	0.66	1	27%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	2	0.61	0	24%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.0	2	0.52	0	21%	0
PIT N. Robertson	2.0	0	0.47	0	23%	0
SJS M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.73	1	27%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	5	0.79	1	16%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.8	4	0.50	0	21%	0
SJS D. Nurse	1.8	1	0.31	0	9%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.8	0	0.67	0	24%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.7	4	0.31	1	8%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	2	0.62	0	23%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.6	4	0.33	0	7%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.5	4	0.58	0	23%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	1	0.35	0	16%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	1	0.45	1	9%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	1	0.38	0	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	1	0.66	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.38	0	16%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.0	1	0.22	0	8%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.0	1	0.41	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.36	0	13%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	3	0.26	1	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	2	0.24	0	9%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	3	0.36	1	7%	1
PIT S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS D. Orlov	0.9	1	0.31	0	5%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.8	0	0.36	0	5%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	1	0.11	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.