STL beat PIT 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.70 expected goals to 3.35. PIT outshot STL 28 to 19. J. Neighbours led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Rakell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Hofer stopped 24 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 3:32PITB. Rust0.17 xG
- 2nd 0:39STLJ. Neighbours0.23 xG
- 2nd 4:22PITC. Dewar0.74 xG
- 2nd 6:48STLP. Buchnevich0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:05STLJ. Kyrou0.20 xG
- 3rd 5:56STLJ. Neighbours0.28 xG
- 3rd 11:15PITR. RakellPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:35PITR. McGroarty0.16 xG
- OT 2:12STLR. ThomasPP0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.35 xGSTL 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:30 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:30 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:30 |
| C. Dewar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:47 | 0:30 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:30 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 24:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 19 | 14 | 5 | .737 | 60:25 | OT loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:35 | 5:55 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 5:15 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:32 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 5:44 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:29 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:16 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 4:23 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:40 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:22 | 0:58 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:55 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:22 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 25:09 | 5:10 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:07 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 62:12 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.7, STL 3.5 | PIT 4, STL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 25.7, STL 30.0 | PIT 28, STL 19 |
| Win chance | STL 63% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.5 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 5 | 0.71 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 2 | 1.14 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 2.0 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.