Game Recap: PIT 3, UTA 2 (OT), January 29, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT3

Final/OTWed, Jan 29, 2025Every game that night

UTA2

PIT beat UTA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 2.90. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Karlsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	0	1	1	1	3
UTA	1	1	0	0	2

1st 14:51UTAM. SergachevPP0.07 xG
2nd 6:40PITM. Pettersson0.02 xG
2nd 8:36UTAM. Carcone0.44 xG
3rd 6:17PITE. Karlsson0.04 xG
OT 3:54PITS. Crosby0.26 xG

Team Stats

PITUTA

29Shots on goal29

2.77Expected goals2.90

68Shot attempts62

255v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/1

35Hits24

19Blocked shots20

7Penalty minutes7

18Giveaways24

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.77 xGUTA 2.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT29 on goal, 3 scored

UTA28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	1	3	1	+2	0	22:45	0:24
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	5	2	3	+1	0	22:34	0:22
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:31	1:38
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	22:01	0:22
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	18:57	1:35
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:59	1:38
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:37	0:18
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:10	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:51	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	10:07	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	8:39	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	3:41	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	5	2	1	+1	0	25:07	1:45
M. Pettersson	D	1	0	1	1	2	3	+1	0	22:56	0:07
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	21:30	0:15
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	0	24:34	1:36
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:14	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	27	2	.931	63:54	Win
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	-1	0	19:50	1:04
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:30	1:04
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	11:59	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:32	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:57	1:04
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	16:54	1:04
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	16:52	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	16:42	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	16:37	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	16:19	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:49	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	5	7:49	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	3	0	4	0	0	25:57	1:04
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	25:32	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	21:07	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-1	0	18:55	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:43	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	29	26	3	.897	63:54	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, UTA 3.2	PIT 3, UTA 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.7, UTA 29.7	PIT 29, UTA 29
Win chance	UTA 57%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	1	1.03	2	32%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	2	1.11	0	33%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.6	3	0.93	1	29%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	5	0.72	1	28%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	1	0.73	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	5	0.64	1	12%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	1	0.90	1	26%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	2	0.51	0	11%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	0	0.59	0	22%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.9	2	0.43	0	9%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	3	0.73	1	12%	1
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.8	1	0.43	1	19%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.8	2	0.40	0	16%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	2	0.33	0	15%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.51	0	18%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	0	0.43	0	21%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	4	0.53	0	20%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.5	3	0.33	0	14%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.5	2	0.34	1	13%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	3	0.36	1	18%	1
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.5	0	0.26	0	11%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.35	1	4%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	2	0.24	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.40	0	16%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	2	0.42	0	13%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.34	1	4%	1
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	3	0.26	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	0	0.36	1	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	2	0.17	0	10%	0
PIT P. Joseph	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.4	0	0.09	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.