Game Recap: PIT 3, VAN 4, October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT3

FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat PIT 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 1.73. VAN outshot PIT 34 to 24. E. Malkin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Lankinen stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	1	1	1	3
VAN	0	4	0	4

1st 7:48PITA. Beauvillier0.06 xG
2nd 1:56PITB. Rust0.11 xG
2nd 4:06VANE. Pettersson0.13 xG
2nd 4:49VANK. Sherwood0.15 xG
2nd 5:11VANJ. Miller0.14 xG
2nd 9:58VANA. Bains0.34 xG
3rd 13:22PITE. Malkin0.14 xG

Team Stats

PITVAN

24Shots on goal34

1.73Expected goals3.83

47Shot attempts61

205v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits24

13Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways13

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 1.73 xGVAN 3.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT22 on goal, 3 scored

VAN33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	2	3	2	0	2	+2	0	17:14	2:19
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	0	14:52	0:00
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	19:51	2:20
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:18	0:51
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:46	2:20
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:31	0:49
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	16:31	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	6	15:20	1:42
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:43	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:10	1:43
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:52	0:00
V. Puustinen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:15	1:39
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	22:23	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	18:05	1:44
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	25:32	2:16
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	21:17	2:17
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:11	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	14:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	34	30	4	.882	58:20	Loss
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:44	4:42
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	19:11	3:51
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	19:03	4:41
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:57	4:11
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	6	0	+1	0	12:48	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:26	0:14
D. Sprong	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	2	10:37	1:03
A. Bains	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	9:25	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:30	1:47
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:50	1:44
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:41	1:18
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:46	0:01
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	2	18:39	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:16	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	25:59	4:38
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	24:00	1:45
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-1	0	18:04	0:05
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	14:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArturs Silovs PIT Faces VAN, his team until Mar 20250 saves on 0
Old teamDrew O'Connor VAN Faces PIT, his team until Jan 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.8, VAN 3.5	PIT 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	PIT 28.8, VAN 29.5	PIT 24, VAN 34
Win chance	VAN 61%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT B. Rust	2.8	2	0.69	1	26%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	1	0.95	0	29%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	3	0.76	1	26%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.5	4	1.18	1	33%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	4	0.87	1	33%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.4	2	1.04	1	33%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.3	3	1.12	0	13%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.67	0	28%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	2	0.79	3	25%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	3	0.65	0	16%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.0	2	0.48	1	19%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.9	3	0.38	0	17%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	3	0.51	0	18%	0
VAN D. Sprong	1.8	3	0.50	1	20%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	3	0.51	0	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	2	0.45	1	17%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.7	2	0.48	0	23%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	0	0.58	0	9%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	1	0.29	2	12%	1
PIT L. Eller	1.6	0	0.34	0	14%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.6	0	0.50	0	21%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.4	1	0.37	0	17%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.4	0	0.23	0	9%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	0	0.40	1	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.32	1	4%	0
PIT V. Puustinen	1.2	0	0.27	0	8%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.1	0	0.32	1	5%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.25	1	5%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	3	0.31	0	3%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.28	0	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.18	0	6%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	3	0.10	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.8	3	0.18	1	11%	1
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.16	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.