Game Recap: PIT 2, WPG 5, November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT2

FinalSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

WPG5

WPG beat PIT 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.69 expected goals to 2.62. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Connor had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. E. Comrie stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	1	2
WPG	2	2	1	5

1st 0:15WPGG. Vilardi0.08 xG
1st 2:43WPGB. Lambert0.23 xG
2nd 1:17WPGV. Namestnikov0.11 xG
2nd 12:13WPGK. Connor0.29 xG
2nd 19:48PITS. CrosbyPP0.09 xG
3rd 10:27PITB. Lizotte0.23 xG
3rd 18:39WPGK. ConnorEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

PITWPG

30Shots on goal34

2.62Expected goals4.69

60Shot attempts63

285v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play0/3

18Hits29

14Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways14

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.62 xGWPG 4.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT30 on goal, 2 scored

WPG34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-2	2	18:40	1:26
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	2	17:43	1:50
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	-2	0	13:32	0:17
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	12:30	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	20:13	1:28
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:25	0:17
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:50	0:35
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	14:09	1:25
F. Hallander	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	13:13	0:40
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:42
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:32	0:43
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	27:00	1:40
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	21:55	1:02
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	21:48	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:57	0:00
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:38	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	33	29	4	.879	59:13	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	8	1	0	+2	0	18:37	3:04
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:47	3:08
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	16:42	3:05
V. Namestnikov	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:37	2:45
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:28	3:05
J. Toews	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:56	2:52
P. Ford	C	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	0	13:07	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	1	1	3	5	0	+1	0	12:32	0:00
B. Lambert	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:11	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:13	2:53
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:40	2:53
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	22:35	3:04
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	+2	2	21:20	2:57
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	20:30	0:11
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+2	0	19:54	0:03
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	15:42	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	+1	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:23B. Rust14:48F. Hallander12:29

Line 2A. Mantha13:54P. Tomasino14:47E. Malkin15:12

Line 3B. Kindel12:18V. Koivunen11:15T. Novak10:49

Line 4C. Dewar10:50N. Acciari9:30B. Lizotte9:48

Pair 1E. Karlsson22:10P. Wotherspoon18:27

Pair 2R. Shea17:09H. Brunicke15:13

Pair 3K. Letang18:15O. Pickering10:43

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:13K. Connor14:25G. Vilardi13:11

Line 2V. Namestnikov13:43A. Iafallo13:23J. Toews13:04

Line 3N. Niederreiter11:26T. Pearson11:42M. Barron12:28

Line 4C. Koepke11:33P. Ford11:45B. Lambert11:11

Pair 1D. DeMelo19:33J. Morrissey18:02

Pair 2L. Stanley18:24N. Pionk16:41

Pair 3C. Miller14:34H. Fleury14:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.6, WPG 3.4	PIT 2, WPG 5
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	PIT 25.6, WPG 29.5	PIT 30, WPG 34
Win chance	WPG 63%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	8	1.20	2	39%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.5	1	0.71	0	27%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	3	0.86	1	29%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	1	1.09	2	36%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	3	0.67	1	13%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	3	0.85	2	32%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	2	0.81	1	15%	0
WPG N. Pionk	2.1	1	0.48	0	8%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	4	0.66	1	21%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	1	0.45	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	0	0.36	0	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.7	3	0.45	1	18%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.49	0	20%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	1	0.51	1	18%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	2	0.32	0	14%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.4	2	0.25	0	14%	0
PIT F. Hallander	1.4	4	0.29	0	11%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.23	1	10%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	4	0.50	1	17%	1
PIT P. Tomasino	1.3	2	0.28	0	11%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.31	0	12%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	0	0.36	0	5%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	1	0.32	0	9%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	3	0.22	1	11%	0
PIT H. Brunicke	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.0	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	3	0.27	1	13%	1
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	3	0.28	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	3	0.21	0	3%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.16	1	9%	0
WPG P. Ford	0.9	1	0.22	1	11%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.8	1	0.29	1	10%	1
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.20	0	6%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.