Game Recap: PIT 4, WSH 2, November 8, 2024

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Game Recap

PIT4

FinalFri, Nov 8, 2024Every game that night

WSH2

PIT beat WSH 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.11 expected goals to 4.02. E. Karlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Karlsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Blomqvist stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	2	0	2	4
WSH	1	1	0	2

1st 3:11PITE. Karlsson0.19 xG
1st 6:59PITM. Bunting0.10 xG
1st 8:22WSHR. Sandin0.07 xG
2nd 6:04WSHA. Mangiapane0.26 xG
3rd 10:28PITE. Malkin0.04 xG
3rd 19:37PITN. AcciariEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

PITWSH

32Shots on goal34

3.11Expected goals4.02

61Shot attempts71

295v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/3

19Hits20

18Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways10

10Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.11 xGWSH 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT31 on goal, 4 scored

WSH34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	18:35	2:27
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:17	1:58
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	0	18:27	2:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:52	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	12:17	0:53
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:10	1:59
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	18:54	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	2	17:19	0:33
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:10	1:20
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:51	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:14	0:49
V. Puustinen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7:30	0:31
E. Karlsson	D	1	1	2	5	2	1	0	2	21:21	2:02
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	4	0	+2	0	22:41	0:59
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:37	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	18:16	1:09
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	16:46	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	34	32	2	.941	59:35	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	-1	0	19:35	3:48
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:49	3:43
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	13:21	1:32
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:57	1:30
J. Vrana	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	10:45	0:04
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	20:28	3:48
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	-2	0	19:39	5:09
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	16:50	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	16:19	1:32
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:33	0:03
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
R. Sandin	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+2	0	20:59	1:24
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	-1	0	24:04	3:56
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	19:00	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	18:48	0:08
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:50	0:03
A. Alexeyev	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	31	28	3	.903	57:16	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces PIT, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, WSH 3.3	PIT 4, WSH 2
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	PIT 30.1, WSH 29.7	PIT 32, WSH 34
Win chance	WSH 56%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	5	0.96	0	38%	0
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	3	1.10	1	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	5	0.71	1	27%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	3	0.67	0	25%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.5	3	0.93	2	28%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.3	3	0.81	0	16%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.3	2	0.59	1	26%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	4	0.64	1	27%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	5	0.60	2	14%	1
PIT D. O'Connor	2.0	0	0.41	0	18%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	2	0.49	1	12%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	2	0.65	0	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	4	0.95	0	28%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.9	3	0.53	1	19%	1
WSH J. Vrana	1.8	0	0.47	1	22%	0
PIT L. Eller	1.7	0	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	2	0.49	0	13%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.6	2	0.29	0	12%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.6	2	0.49	1	20%	1
WSH B. Duhaime	1.5	2	0.28	0	13%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.5	2	0.32	0	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.4	2	0.25	0	9%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.3	2	0.33	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.2	0	0.46	0	21%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.24	1	12%	1
PIT V. Puustinen	1.2	0	0.30	0	9%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.27	0	5%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.32	1	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.47	1	8%	1
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.32	0	9%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	1.1	0	0.38	1	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	2	0.16	0	5%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	0	0.08	0	3%	0
WSH A. Alexeyev	0.7	2	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.