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Game Recap
PIT0
FinalSun, Apr 12, 2026Every game that night
WSH3

WSH beat PIT 3-0, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 3.14. C. McMichael led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. van Riemsdyk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Thompson stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT0000
WSH0123
  1. 2nd 12:22WSHT. van Riemsdyk0.13 xG
  2. 3rd 15:50WSHC. McMichael0.17 xG
  3. 3rd 17:16WSHC. McMichaelEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

PITWSH
24Shots on goal27
3.14Expected goals3.19
65Shot attempts54
225v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/1
10Hits18
13Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways19
8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.14 xGWSH 3.19 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdWSH goal, 12:22WSH goal, 15:50WSH goal, 17:16

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT24 on goal, 0 scored
WSH26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. RustRW000011-2020:213:13
S. CrosbyC000220-2219:563:15
R. RakellRW000202-2018:473:06
E. MalkinC000200-2018:223:14
E. ChinakhovRW000301-2017:000:45
T. NovakC000401-1016:290:54
K. HayesRW0002000013:550:43
J. BrazeauRW0002010013:240:45
E. SoderblomLW0002200013:220:02
V. KoivunenRW0001000011:390:00
J. KoppanenLW0000100010:070:00
R. McGroartyRW000200009:550:00
J. St. IvanyD0001200021:220:00
E. KarlssonD000001-2019:562:43
P. WotherspoonD000012-1019:520:00
I. SolovyovD0001120019:450:00
K. LetangD000000-1017:391:17
S. GirardD000002-1017:000:03
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner26242.92359:09Loss
A. Silovs000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW213200+3015:310:00
P. DuboisC011201+3016:180:51
A. OvechkinLW011351+1016:112:00
R. LeonardRW011211+2015:400:51
A. ProtasLW0001110019:180:00
T. WilsonRW0002310018:140:51
I. ProtasLW0003000015:451:09
A. BeauvillierRW0001210015:270:00
D. StromeC0000010014:321:09
J. SourdifC0001000013:061:09
B. DuhaimeLW000111009:570:00
I. MiroshnichenkoLW000110007:350:00
M. FehérváryD022010+1418:500:06
T. van RiemsdykD101501+1018:590:00
J. ChychrunD000120+1022:210:45
T. LiljegrenD0002030021:160:00
M. RoyD000012+2019:410:00
C. HutsonD000001+1017:191:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson242401.00060:00Win
C. Stevenson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:47B. Rust14:27E. Chinakhov15:21
Line 2E. Malkin14:17T. Novak15:35R. Rakell14:41
Line 3K. Hayes13:12J. Brazeau12:39V. Koivunen11:39
Pair 1I. Solovyov19:45J. Ivany19:27
Pair 3K. Letang16:14S. Girard16:57

WSH

Line 1A. Protas16:06I. Protas14:36T. Wilson15:21
Line 2P. Dubois14:32R. Leonard14:46C. McMichael13:54
Pair 1T. Riemsdyk16:09J. Chychrun20:24
Pair 3C. Hutson16:08M. Roy16:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 3.3, WSH 3.3PIT 0, WSH 3
Total goals6.63
Shots on goalPIT 27.6, WSH 27.0PIT 24, WSH 27
Win chanceWSH 52%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Ovechkin2.930.89137%0
PIT R. Rakell2.420.71027%0
PIT B. Rust2.300.78028%0
PIT E. Malkin2.320.83024%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.210.61020%0
PIT E. Chinakhov2.130.56021%0
PIT S. Crosby2.120.91028%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.100.70015%0
WSH T. Wilson2.020.80031%0
WSH R. Leonard1.920.53120%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.810.41018%0
WSH A. Protas1.810.68024%0
WSH C. McMichael1.720.59321%2
WSH D. Strome1.600.79025%0
PIT T. Novak1.640.53020%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.510.58021%0
WSH C. Hutson1.500.5309%0
WSH P. Dubois1.320.60119%0
PIT K. Hayes1.320.26012%0
PIT R. McGroarty1.320.25010%0
PIT K. Letang1.300.3908%0
PIT E. Soderblom1.320.30013%0
PIT J. Brazeau1.220.34015%0
WSH M. Roy1.100.2805%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko0.910.23010%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.920.2406%0
WSH B. Duhaime0.910.20010%0
PIT V. Koivunen0.910.2307%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.3127%0
PIT J. Koppanen0.800.1509%0
PIT P. Wotherspoon0.800.2903%0
PIT S. Girard0.800.3005%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.850.2414%1
PIT I. Solovyov0.710.2503%0
PIT J. Ivany0.710.1802%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.