WSH beat PIT 3-0, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 3.14. C. McMichael led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. van Riemsdyk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Thompson stopped 24 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 12:22WSHT. van Riemsdyk0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:50WSHC. McMichael0.17 xG
- 3rd 17:16WSHC. McMichaelEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.14 xGWSH 3.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:21 | 3:13 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:56 | 3:15 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:47 | 3:06 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:14 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:45 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:54 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:43 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:45 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:02 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:43 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:17 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 59:09 | Loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McMichael | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:51 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:51 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:51 |
| I. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:09 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:09 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:09 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 18:50 | 0:06 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:45 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Stevenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
WSH
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.3, WSH 3.3 | PIT 0, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 27.6, WSH 27.0 | PIT 24, WSH 27 |
| Win chance | WSH 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.1 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 3 | 21% | 2 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH C. Hutson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Liljegren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PIT I. Solovyov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.