Game Recap: SEA 3, OTT 4 (SO), October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA3

Final/SOThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat SEA 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.17 expected goals to 4.68. SEA outshot OTT 33 to 23. C. Stephenson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wright had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. L. Ullmark stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SEA	1	1	1	0	3
OTT	2	0	1	1	4

1st 4:57SEAS. Wright0.31 xG
1st 7:42OTTS. Pinto0.12 xG
1st 9:35OTTD. PerronPP0.16 xG
2nd 4:40SEAC. Stephenson0.13 xG
3rd 2:15SEAC. StephensonPP0.32 xG
3rd 18:14OTTD. Cozens0.02 xG

Team Stats

SEAOTT

33Shots on goal23

4.68Expected goals2.17

67Shot attempts69

205v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/2

27Hits19

21Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways16

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 4.68 xGOTT 2.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA33 on goal, 3 scored

OTT22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	2	0	2	4	1	1	0	0	21:34	3:46
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	21:23	3:50
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	17:44	2:01
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:59	1:58
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	6	2	1	+1	0	16:52	1:54
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	22:52	3:49
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	0	18:40	3:45
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	15:14	1:32
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	14:42	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	11:10	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:02	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6:19	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	2	2	1	3	2	+1	0	23:24	2:42
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:09	3:02
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:57	0:21
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	20:51	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	17:12	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	16:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	23	20	3	.870	65:00	OT loss
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	16:14	1:11
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:36	1:24
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:52	2:08
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:15	2:08
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	13:15	0:05
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	10:25	1:12
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	24:37	2:19
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:34	2:11
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	14:44	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:17	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:10	1:16
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	-1	2	21:04	1:39
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:47	0:07
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	26:52	1:50
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	20:26	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	17:14	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	33	30	3	.909	64:44	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1M. Marchment15:01S. Wright13:49R. Winterton14:10

Line 2J. Schwartz15:32C. Stephenson14:42E. Tolvanen12:54

Line 3J. Eberle14:31M. Beniers15:15J. McCann12:41

Line 4F. Gaudreau6:41T. Kartye9:35J. Nyman6:19

Pair 1R. Lindgren18:20B. Montour18:20

Pair 2A. Larsson20:01V. Dunn14:29

Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:16J. Mahura14:54

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:04D. Cozens14:58D. Perron9:02

Line 2C. Giroux13:19T. Stützle16:24R. Greig12:53

Line 3M. Amadio13:13S. Pinto11:56F. Zetterlund12:17

Line 4L. Eller11:34N. Cousins11:57A. Kaliyev9:54

Pair 1J. Spence19:35T. Kleven16:48

Pair 2J. Sanderson17:46A. Zub17:20

Pair 3N. Jensen13:23T. Chabot16:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.2, OTT 3.0	SEA 3, OTT 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	SEA 26.7, OTT 28.3	SEA 33, OTT 23
Win chance	SEA 52%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.52	2	14%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.5	5	0.78	0	30%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	2	0.60	1	21%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	2	0.57	0	9%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.72	1	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	2	0.89	0	26%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	2	0.57	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	0	0.54	1	11%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	3	0.63	1	26%	1
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.66	1	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.65	0	12%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.9	2	0.40	0	17%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.8	3	0.54	1	22%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	4	0.57	0	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	1	0.45	0	22%	0
OTT A. Kaliyev	1.7	1	0.28	0	14%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	2	0.52	1	22%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.45	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.59	2	20%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.4	0	0.14	0	9%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.31	0	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.40	0	19%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	1	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	1	0.28	1	12%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	6	0.55	1	21%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	0	0.35	0	16%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	4	0.72	2	21%	2
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	0.9	2	0.27	1	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.