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Game Recap
SEA3
Final/SOTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
PHI2

SEA beat PHI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 3.06. T. Zegras had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Grubauer stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
SEA11013
PHI00202
  1. 1st 7:57SEAB. McMannPP0.12 xG
  2. 2nd 8:54SEAV. Ottavainen0.07 xG
  3. 3rd 6:07PHIC. Dvorak0.14 xG
  4. 3rd 7:20PHIT. Zegras0.23 xG

Team Stats

SEAPHI
31Shots on goal26
3.25Expected goals3.06
56Shot attempts56
215v5 shots on goal21
1/5Power play0/3
13Hits31
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes10
11Giveaways14
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.25 xGPHI 3.06 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTSEA goal, 7:57SEA goal, 8:54PHI goal, 6:07PHI goal, 7:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA31 on goal, 2 scored
PHI26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. StephensonC0111000018:403:59
M. SamoskevichRW011211+1017:341:35
J. EberleRW011320-1416:173:40
B. McMannC1012100214:451:41
M. BeniersC0003100020:313:25
J. McCannLW000410+1017:303:35
B. CattonC0001120016:203:00
K. KakkoRW0001000015:492:26
F. GaudreauC000103-1014:120:00
R. WintertonC000100-1013:510:00
S. WrightC0002030012:581:43
B. MeyersC000001-1011:480:00
J. MahuraD0111100011:450:00
V. OttavainenD101110009:330:00
B. MontourD0003100030:093:35
V. DunnD000403-1026:084:11
R. EvansD0000230023:410:00
A. LarssonD000111-1020:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer26242.92365:00Win
J. Daccord000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC101501+1421:431:58
O. TippettRW011110+1020:372:18
C. DvorakC1011200018:352:13
S. CouturierC0002100021:200:06
T. FoersterRW0002410015:581:53
D. BarkeyC0000000015:322:07
M. MichkovRW0000000014:462:19
N. CatesLW0002110214:330:00
N. AcciariC0001310011:360:00
P. MartoneRW0001410011:311:47
M. BuntingLW000020009:101:53
J. StudnickaC000120029:060:00
T. SanheimD011330+1031:040:06
O. BonkD011111+1020:000:05
J. DrysdaleD0002130223:272:06
N. SeelerD0000330023:190:08
D.JiricekD0000210013:022:08
S. BenoitD0004100012:580:03
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar31292.93565:00OT loss
J. Woll000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1M. Beniers14:17M. Samoskevich15:59J. McCann13:03
Line 2K. Kakko13:23B. Catton12:41S. Wright10:53
Line 3C. Stephenson11:13B. McMann12:12J. Eberle10:13
Line 4F. Gaudreau11:29R. Winterton11:21B. Meyers10:06
Pair 1R. Evans20:43B. Montour21:35
Pair 2A. Larsson17:03V. Dunn17:41
Pair 3J. Mahura11:45V. Ottavainen9:33

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier15:49T. Zegras17:10O. Tippett15:50
Line 2C. Dvorak13:03D. Barkey11:43T. Foerster12:03
Line 3M. Michkov12:05N. Cates13:52P. Martone9:44
Line 4N. Acciari9:22J. Studnicka9:06M. Bunting7:17
Pair 1T. Sanheim22:31O. Bonk18:40
Pair 2N. Seeler17:08J. Drysdale18:25
Pair 3S. Benoit11:21D.Jiricek10:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 17 overs hit (65%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5-110-1022Under
SEA B. Montour2.5+130-1603Over
SEA J. McCann2.5+135-1684Over
PHI O. Tippett2.5-111-1101Under
PHI P. Martone2.5+140-1801Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5-120-1151Under
PHI D. Barkey1.5+125-1700Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+140-1552Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-125-1043Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5+100-1253Over
PHI M. Michkov1.5-155+1250Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-155+1302Over
PHI S. Couturier1.5-105-1152Over
SEA S. Wright1.5+110-1502Over
PHI T. Foerster1.5-125+1102Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5+100-1205Over
SEA V. Dunn1.5-135+1224Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 3.0, PHI 2.9SEA 3, PHI 2
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalSEA 25.9, PHI 26.8SEA 31, PHI 26
Win chanceSEA 50%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett2.610.63127%0
SEA B. McMann2.520.57126%1
SEA B. Montour2.430.51015%0
PHI T. Foerster2.120.60029%0
SEA J. McCann2.040.63024%0
SEA M. Samoskevich1.920.43117%0
PHI M. Michkov1.900.65022%0
SEA V. Dunn1.940.53012%0
PHI P. Martone1.910.49018%0
PHI S. Couturier1.720.51017%0
SEA J. Eberle1.730.58122%0
PHI T. Zegras1.750.72124%1
PHI C. Dvorak1.610.57120%1
SEA M. Beniers1.530.54021%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.430.43110%0
PHI M. Bunting1.400.40016%0
SEA R. Winterton1.410.3009%0
SEA B. Catton1.410.38015%0
SEA A. Larsson1.310.3108%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.320.3708%0
PHI N. Cates1.320.43015%0
PHI N. Acciari1.310.30014%0
PHI N. Seeler1.200.2205%0
PHI D. Barkey1.200.48016%0
SEA S. Wright1.220.40017%0
SEA K. Kakko1.110.51016%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.110.35015%0
SEA B. Meyers1.000.27011%0
PHI D.Jiricek1.000.2004%0
SEA C. Stephenson0.910.58118%0
PHI S. Benoit0.840.1102%0
SEA J. Mahura0.810.1813%0
SEA R. Evans0.700.3008%0
PHI J. Studnicka0.710.0804%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.