TOR beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.87 expected goals to 1.53. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Nylander had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Woll stopped 24 of 25.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.53 xGTOR 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 | 3:23 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 3:38 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:46 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:47 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:47 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:57 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:32 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:30 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:31 | 4:05 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:39 | 0:05 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:03 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:01 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 1:16 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 56:27 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:50 | 2:04 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:34 | 1:22 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:20 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:02 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 2:00 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:03 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:18 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 1:19 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:48 | 2:04 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 1:18 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 59:42 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 3.0, TOR 3.6 | SEA 1, TOR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 27.2, TOR 31.7 | SEA 25, TOR 30 |
| Win chance | TOR 60% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.3 | 4 | 1.16 | 2 | 47% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.1 | 6 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.1 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 5 | 0.80 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.3 | 1 | 1.16 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.