Game Recap: SEA 3, UTA 5, December 12, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA3

FinalFri, Dec 12, 2025Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat SEA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.67 expected goals to 3.99. N. Schmaltz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Marchment had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	1	2	3
UTA	0	2	3	5

2nd 3:35SEAM. Marchment0.15 xG
2nd 8:09UTAN. Schmaltz0.26 xG
2nd 13:24UTAK. Yamamoto0.16 xG
3rd 7:50SEAM. Marchment0.05 xG
3rd 12:55UTAD. GuentherPP0.16 xG
3rd 17:49UTAJ. PeterkaEN0.70 xG
3rd 18:58UTAL. CrouseEN0.91 xG
3rd 19:17SEAB. Meyers0.10 xG

Team Stats

SEAUTA

37Shots on goal33

3.99Expected goals5.67

68Shot attempts78

255v5 shots on goal26

0/4Power play1/2

14Hits13

25Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.99 xGUTA 5.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA37 on goal, 3 scored

UTA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	2	0	2	6	1	0	+1	0	17:37	0:52
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	-2	0	22:15	5:29
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
B. Meyers	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:24	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	20:30	5:27
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:49	5:28
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	5	1	3	-2	0	19:36	5:27
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	0	4	+1	0	13:49	0:48
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:59	0:49
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:58	0:50
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	21:48	0:50
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	0	1	5	0	4	17:49	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-3	0	26:13	5:30
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	20:35	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+2	0	13:58	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	31	28	3	.903	58:28	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	0	0	19:55	1:29
K. Stenlund	C	0	3	3	2	0	2	+1	0	16:56	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	2	16:47	1:27
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	16:38	0:51
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	15:27	1:31
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:11	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	8:11	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:16	1:30
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:06	0:54
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:38	0:50
D. But	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:47	0:52
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	22:08	1:26
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	21:20	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	21:18	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	2	20:41	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	-2	0	18:07	0:55
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	14:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	37	34	3	.919	59:42	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle12:53M. Beniers13:35E. Tolvanen12:22

Line 2M. Marchment15:07F. Gaudreau13:45C. Stephenson13:22

Line 3K. Kakko11:16S. Wright11:50J. Nyman11:22

Line 4T. Kartye8:50R. Winterton8:47B. Meyers9:10

Pair 1A. Larsson18:32V. Dunn17:54

Pair 2R. Lindgren16:08B. Montour18:18

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:03J. Mahura12:21

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz16:10C. Keller15:21J. Peterka14:40

Line 2B. Hayton11:14D. Guenther12:35L. Crouse11:35

Line 3M. Carcone11:00J. McBain10:51D. But10:36

Line 4L. O'Brien8:01K. Stenlund10:56K. Yamamoto9:02

Pair 1N. Schmidt17:09J. Marino18:42

Pair 2M. Sergachev13:28S. Durzi15:12

Pair 3I. Cole16:36O. Määttä14:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKailer Yamamoto UTA Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20241 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.6, UTA 3.1	SEA 3, UTA 5
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	SEA 23.9, UTA 28.5	SEA 37, UTA 33
Win chance	UTA 58%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	2	0.80	1	29%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.8	2	1.02	0	32%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.47	1	15%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.4	4	0.87	1	30%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	2	0.83	3	27%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	6	0.55	0	12%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	1	0.63	0	23%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	1	0.47	1	23%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	4	0.66	1	11%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	2	0.43	0	20%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.8	6	0.56	2	22%	2
UTA D. But	1.8	1	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.40	0	17%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	4	0.56	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	5	0.44	0	19%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	3	0.43	0	8%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	1	0.35	0	14%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.2	1	0.23	0	13%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	2	0.26	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	2	0.47	0	19%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.37	0	14%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	4	0.62	1	19%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.33	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	2	0.29	3	13%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	1	0.15	1	6%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	0	0.29	1	14%	0
SEA R. Winterton	0.9	1	0.14	1	8%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	1	0.29	1	12%	1
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.21	1	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.37	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	0	0.21	1	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	2	0.16	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.23	0	3%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.7	1	0.15	1	8%	1
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	2	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.