Game Recap: SEA 3, UTA 6, January 17, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA3

FinalSat, Jan 17, 2026Every game that night

UTA6

UTA beat SEA 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.72 expected goals to 3.48. UTA outshot SEA 31 to 21. N. Schmidt led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Schmidt had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	2	0	3
UTA	1	2	3	6

1st 1:09SEAJ. Eberle0.15 xG
1st 2:47UTAK. StenlundSH0.20 xG
2nd 0:28UTAN. Schmidt0.02 xG
2nd 4:31UTAN. Schmaltz0.35 xG
2nd 15:11SEAM. Beniers0.64 xG
2nd 17:43SEAC. Stephenson0.23 xG
3rd 14:30UTAN. Schmidt0.28 xG
3rd 15:12UTAL. Crouse0.18 xG
3rd 19:09UTAB. HaytonEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

SEAUTA

21Shots on goal31

3.48Expected goals4.72

55Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal25

0/3Power play0/2

13Hits25

18Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways17

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.48 xGUTA 4.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA21 on goal, 3 scored

UTA30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	15:58	2:28
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:31	1:52
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:28	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	0	3	3	0	0	17:27	2:08
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	2	15:03	2:04
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	13:40	0:08
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	12:59	1:25
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	15:45	2:50
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:55	0:09
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	14:16	1:46
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	13:02	2:23
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:30	0:08
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	19:55	2:15
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	23:50	2:08
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	18:36	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	2	18:18	0:08
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:06	0:03
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	30	25	5	.833	57:49	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	1	2	3	4	8	1	+3	0	18:42	1:17
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	18:08	2:43
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	19:01	2:44
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	16:55	2:41
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	3	4	2	+1	2	15:13	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:26	0:00
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:03	1:18
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:37	2:42
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:23	1:16
D. But	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:05	1:14
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	9:14	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	2	2	4	5	2	1	+4	0	20:39	0:04
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+5	0	22:21	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	19:17	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	20:50	2:42
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	18:01	1:19
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson14:00E. Tolvanen13:48F. Gaudreau16:09

Line 2R. Winterton12:22B. Meyers12:15J. Schwartz9:48

Line 3J. Eberle11:46M. Beniers11:59K. Kakko10:35

Line 4S. Wright11:27B. Catton12:22J. McCann11:37

Pair 1J. Oleksiak14:45R. Evans17:11

Pair 2B. Montour19:19R. Lindgren15:19

Pair 3A. Larsson16:38V. Dunn15:50

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:32C. Keller14:14L. Crouse14:15

Line 2J. McBain13:27M. Carcone13:07D. Guenther13:02

Line 3B. Hayton12:16J. Peterka12:55D. But11:51

Line 4K. Stenlund10:23B. Tanev9:08L. O'Brien8:50

Pair 1J. Marino19:26N. Schmidt18:09

Pair 2M. Sergachev14:16S. Durzi16:42

Pair 3I. Cole15:22N. DeSimone15:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Tanev UTA Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, UTA 3.4	SEA 3, UTA 6
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	SEA 24.2, UTA 30.2	SEA 21, UTA 31
Win chance	UTA 60%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.2	0	0.85	1	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	0.97	2	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	4	0.87	1	28%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.3	3	0.40	0	13%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	1	0.65	0	26%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	3	0.71	0	26%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.51	1	11%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	2	0.66	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.0	4	0.51	3	25%	1
UTA M. Carcone	2.0	3	0.45	0	21%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	1	0.56	1	22%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	1	0.47	0	21%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.8	1	0.47	0	9%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	3	0.54	2	21%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.48	1	20%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.39	1	16%	1
UTA D. But	1.6	1	0.29	0	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	0	0.44	1	16%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	3	0.35	1	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.26	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	3	0.40	0	17%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	1	0.36	1	16%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	1	0.27	1	13%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.60	1	19%	1
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	5	0.30	4	5%	2
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	0	0.20	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.28	1	13%	1
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.14	0	6%	0
SEA R. Winterton	0.9	3	0.18	0	7%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.38	1	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.22	1	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.25	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.