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Game Recap
SEA2
VGK6
VGK beat SEA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.63 expected goals to 2.50. VGK outshot SEA 34 to 23. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). I. Samsonov stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 2:34SEAV. DunnPP0.06 xG
- 1st 12:39VGKK. Kolesar0.15 xG
- 1st 13:50VGKB. Howden0.15 xG
- 1st 17:48VGKN. Hague0.06 xG
- 3rd 8:09VGKW. Karlsson0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:28VGKN. Hanifin0.12 xG
- 3rd 13:58SEAJ. SchwartzPP0.26 xG
- 3rd 18:51VGKM. StoneEN0.50 xG
Team Stats
SEAVGK
23Shots on goal34
2.50Expected goals3.63
57Shot attempts63
165v5 shots on goal33
2/4Power play0/1
26Hits12
15Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways10
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.50 xGVGK 3.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:35 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 2:30 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:36 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:37 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:13 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:16 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:36 | 1:14 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:15 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:47 | 2:23 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 24:04 | 1:27 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 19:09 | 0:04 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 57:45 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:48 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:48 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:05 | 0:48 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:48 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 23:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:44 | 0:48 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, VGK 3.4 | SEA 2, VGK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.6, VGK 30.4 | SEA 23, VGK 34 |
| Win chance | VGK 61% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 3 | 1.09 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.6 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.94 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA D. Sprong | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.0 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.