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Game Recap
SEA3
VGK2
SEA beat VGK 3-2, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 2.65. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Daccord stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:50SEAE. Tolvanen0.30 xG
- 1st 13:04SEAJ. McCannPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 8:52VGKI. Barbashev0.39 xG
- 2nd 19:48VGKM. MarnerPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 3:18SEAK. Kakko0.26 xG
Team Stats
SEAVGK
22Shots on goal29
2.52Expected goals2.65
46Shot attempts60
185v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play1/2
23Hits24
15Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways16
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.52 xGVGK 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:09 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:49 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:50 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:03 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:10 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:59 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:14 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:10 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:13 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:52 | 2:14 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:55 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:15 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:08 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:03 |
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:02 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:18 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 2:08 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:20 | 2:08 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:13 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:13 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:19 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:13 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle15:43M. Beniers16:17J. McCann15:14
Line 2J. Schwartz14:00K. Kakko12:45S. Wright12:36
Line 3C. Stephenson13:31E. Tolvanen12:34R. Winterton12:16
Line 4F. Gaudreau12:34T. Kartye10:19J. Melanson9:56
Pair 1J. Oleksiak17:20B. Montour20:04
Pair 2A. Larsson18:25V. Dunn17:38
Pair 3R. Lindgren15:36R. Evans17:02
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev16:03J. Eichel16:39B. Bowman14:21
Line 2T. Hertl15:31K. Kolesar14:52J. Rondbjerg13:29
Line 3M. Marner12:01P. Dorofeyev12:32M. Stone13:31
Line 4C. Reinhardt9:32A. Holtz9:52R. Smith10:49
Pair 1N. Hanifin19:56R. Andersson19:10
Pair 2S. Theodore19:20J. Lauzon15:55
Pair 3B. Hutton15:29K. Korczak14:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, VGK 3.5 | SEA 3, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 22.8, VGK 30.2 | SEA 22, VGK 29 |
| Win chance | VGK 62% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 5 | 1.18 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 4 | 1.09 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.7 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.61 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.