Game Recap: SEA 1, VGK 4, April 15, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalWed, Apr 15, 2026Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 1.39. R. Smith led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Hart stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	1	0	1
VGK	0	1	3	4

2nd 2:24SEAS. Wright0.39 xG
2nd 17:35VGKS. Theodore0.06 xG
3rd 1:23VGKM. Marner0.06 xG
3rd 12:01VGKR. Smith0.16 xG
3rd 16:36VGKR. Smith0.11 xG

Team Stats

SEAVGK

23Shots on goal26

1.39Expected goals3.23

41Shot attempts64

235v5 shots on goal23

0/0Power play0/2

22Hits19

15Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes0

12Giveaways18

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.39 xGVGK 3.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA23 on goal, 1 scored

VGK26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	12:35	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:17	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:57	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:27	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:15	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:01	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	14:41	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:37	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:02	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	12:57	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:49	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	2	18:32	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	22:12	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	21:19	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:43	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	19:41	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Kokko	26	22	4	.846	60:00	Loss
V. Ostman	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
R. Smith	RW	2	1	3	5	0	1	+2	13:10	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	19:45	3:30
M. Marner	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	16:51	3:31
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	15:25	3:35
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	12:01	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:07	3:38
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:12	0:25
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	17:41	3:24
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:06	0:27
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	13:41	0:35
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	12:07	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:08	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	21:53	0:26
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	19:02	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	18:46	0:19
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	14:16	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	23:21	0:10
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	15:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	23	22	1	.957	59:42	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1B. McMann14:41M. Beniers15:10J. Eberle14:56

Line 2C. Stephenson16:00E. Tolvanen14:45B. Catton15:15

Line 3K. Kakko13:44J. Nyman12:17S. Wright13:06

Line 4R. Winterton11:56B. Meyers11:19F. Gaudreau13:02

Pair 1A. Larsson19:09V. Dunn19:41

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:07R. Evans17:10

Pair 3B. Montour21:13J. Mahura17:59

VGK

Line 1B. Howden16:39P. Dorofeyev16:29I. Barbashev17:47

Line 2M. Stone14:17J. Eichel15:57M. Marner13:20

Line 3N. Dowd12:01C. Smith11:08C. Sissons13:06

Line 4R. Smith12:52T. Hertl11:32K. Kolesar11:49

Pair 1N. Hanifin23:11R. Andersson21:27

Pair 2B. McNabb19:02S. Theodore18:27

Pair 3J. Lauzon15:28K. Korczak13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChandler Stephenson SEA Faces VGK, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, VGK 3.5	SEA 1, VGK 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SEA 22.6, VGK 31.2	SEA 23, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 64%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	4	1.12	2	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	3	0.73	0	33%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.4	3	0.58	0	27%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	3	0.43	0	13%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	1	0.67	1	25%	0
VGK R. Andersson	2.1	2	0.47	1	11%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.1	2	1.07	1	28%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	0.97	0	29%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	0	0.64	0	23%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	1	0.41	0	7%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	2	0.57	1	9%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.57	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.6	4	0.47	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	0	0.65	0	22%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.4	4	0.27	0	8%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.4	2	0.34	0	15%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.25	1	5%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	5	0.39	3	16%	2
VGK C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.29	0	12%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	0	0.16	0	3%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.0	0	0.48	0	16%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.0	1	0.22	1	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	0	0.57	0	17%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA S. Wright	0.9	1	0.33	1	14%	1
VGK C. Smith	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	0	0.26	1	11%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	2	0.17	1	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.25	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.6	1	0.17	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.