Game Recap: SEA 1, WSH 4, October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 1.91. WSH outshot SEA 34 to 19. N. Dowd led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Wilson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Thompson stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
WSH	1	2	1	4

1st 8:30WSHN. Dowd0.08 xG
2nd 0:25WSHR. Leonard0.17 xG
2nd 1:33WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.11 xG
3rd 3:50SEAJ. Schwartz0.14 xG
3rd 19:10WSHT. WilsonEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

SEAWSH

19Shots on goal34

1.91Expected goals3.55

51Shot attempts71

175v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play1/2

13Hits18

19Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.91 xGWSH 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 1 scored

WSH34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	-1	2	19:47	1:28
B. Meyers	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:11	2:31
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	21:10	2:34
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:48	2:34
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	18:13	1:26
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:50	1:26
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:07	1:26
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:29	2:34
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:03	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:06	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	8:35	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	22:56	2:32
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:57	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+1	0	19:31	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:04	1:29
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:36	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Murray	33	30	3	.909	57:34	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Dowd	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	+1	0	16:58	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	16:28	0:50
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	20:06	1:53
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:55	2:39
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:30	1:53
B. Duhaime	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	15:28	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:22	0:50
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:32	0:50
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:49	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	11:36	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	22:23	1:53
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:47	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+3	0	19:45	1:53
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:33	0:04
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:54	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	15:01	0:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:44M. Beniers15:23B. Catton16:09

Line 2J. Schwartz16:36C. Stephenson15:51E. Tolvanen13:35

Line 3S. Wright11:59R. Winterton11:30J. Nyman8:56

Line 4T. Kartye8:46B. Meyers10:08J. Hayden7:45

Pair 1A. Larsson17:56V. Dunn17:58

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:38J. Mahura16:12

Pair 3R. Lindgren14:46C. Fleury16:23

WSH

Line 1N. Dowd13:32B. Duhaime13:44E. Frank12:49

Line 2A. Ovechkin12:39D. Strome13:37A. Beauvillier13:06

Line 3C. McMichael14:36T. Wilson14:38H. Lapierre10:32

Line 4A. Protas12:03J. Sourdif11:36R. Leonard9:32

Pair 1M. Roy18:38J. Chychrun18:43

Pair 2J. Carlson14:27M. Fehérváry19:06

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk17:24R. Sandin13:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, WSH 3.4	SEA 1, WSH 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SEA 25.2, WSH 28.1	SEA 19, WSH 34
Win chance	WSH 62%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	1	1.00	1	40%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	4	0.63	1	18%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	5	0.83	1	31%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	3	0.67	1	12%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.1	2	0.84	2	26%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	1	0.56	0	14%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	4	0.45	1	20%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	2	0.38	0	16%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	3	0.59	0	20%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.97	1	28%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	2	0.56	0	22%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	3	0.24	1	14%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	2	0.51	0	21%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	0	0.38	0	19%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.26	0	7%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.3	1	0.22	0	13%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.48	0	19%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.31	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.62	0	18%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	2	0.10	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	0	0.41	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	3	0.31	1	7%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.0	1	0.32	0	15%	0
SEA J. Hayden	1.0	1	0.10	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	2	0.33	2	16%	1
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	0	0.26	1	12%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.9	1	0.10	0	2%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.17	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.34	0	10%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	2	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	0	0.09	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.