Game Recap: SEA 5, WSH 3, October 11, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA5

FinalSun, Oct 11, 2026Every game that night

WSH3

SEA beat WSH 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.67 expected goals to 3.05. WSH outshot SEA 36 to 27. F. Gaudreau led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Chychrun had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Daccord stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	2	1	2	5
WSH	2	0	1	3

1st 6:06SEAK. Kakko0.55 xG
1st 11:41WSHJ. Kyrou0.15 xG
1st 16:47WSHA. Ovechkin0.23 xG
1st 19:49SEAJ. Eberle0.05 xG
2nd 13:24SEAF. Gaudreau0.26 xG
3rd 0:46WSHB. Jenner0.19 xG
3rd 14:33SEAJ. McCann0.16 xG
3rd 17:20SEAR. Winterton0.25 xG

Team Stats

SEAWSH

27Shots on goal36

4.67Expected goals3.05

56Shot attempts60

245v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/2

13Hits31

11Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways19

7Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 4.67 xGWSH 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA27 on goal, 5 scored

WSH36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Gaudreau	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	15:51	0:09
B. Meyers	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+2	0	13:06	0:11
R. Winterton	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	10:45	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	4	3	0	-1	0	18:58	2:00
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	6	0	1	-1	0	18:24	1:46
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	2	18:16	2:10
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:36	2:01
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:15	1:41
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:20	2:03
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:21	1:01
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:49	1:26
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:25	1:03
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+4	0	24:43	0:05
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	24:38	1:45
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+3	0	24:12	2:34
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	2	20:02	0:05
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:00	0:00
V. Ottavainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	36	33	3	.917	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	16:56	2:32
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:49	1:34
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	5	6	2	0	0	15:31	0:09
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	15:21	2:14
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	14:49	0:01
I. Protas	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:51	1:29
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:52	1:41
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	3	7	0	-1	0	20:49	1:54
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	2	19:34	2:12
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	11:36	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:11	1:04
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:53	0:08
C. Hutson	D	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	0	20:02	1:29
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	8	0	0	-1	0	27:23	2:18
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	23:32	0:13
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	21:17	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	18:47	0:02
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	5:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	27	22	5	.815	57:42	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:04C. Stephenson14:54B. McMann15:35

Line 2M. Samoskevich13:20J. McCann11:57M. Beniers12:08

Line 3F. Gaudreau12:13B. Meyers11:26R. Winterton9:26

Line 4K. Kakko10:34S. Wright11:22B. Catton11:23

Pair 1A. Larsson21:21V. Dunn19:32

Pair 2R. Evans18:16B. Montour19:43

Pair 3J. Mahura11:08V. Ottavainen10:08

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson15:52A. Tuch16:00D. Strome15:47

Line 2J. Kyrou13:21R. Leonard12:18B. Jenner12:19

Line 3A. Ovechkin12:06A. Protas12:55I. Protas11:22

Line 4A. Beauvillier8:45E. Frank8:07J. Sourdif10:29

Pair 1J. Chychrun22:09T. Liljegren20:02

Pair 2M. Fehérváry20:31V. Desharnais16:04

Pair 3D. McIlrath5:05C. Hutson16:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.5	-125	+100	3	Over
WSH A. Tuch	2.5	+110	-130	2	Under
SEA B. McMann	2.5	+105	-115	4	Over
SEA B. Montour	2.5	+130	-145	1	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	-120	-104	8	Over
WSH T. Wilson	2.5	+160	-175	3	Over
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.5	+105	-110	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	1.5	-120	-105	1	Under
WSH B. Jenner	1.5	-105	-125	5	Over
WSH C. Hutson	1.5	-120	+105	5	Over
WSH D. Strome	1.5	-135	+120	2	Over
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	-115	-110	6	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	1.5	-145	+140	1	Under
SEA J. McCann	1.5	-170	+140	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	1.5	-160	+140	1	Under
WSH R. Leonard	1.5	-160	+130	4	Over
SEA V. Dunn	1.5	-145	+130	2	Over

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+460	-650	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+215	-285	1	Over
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+370	-650	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
WSH B. Jenner	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
WSH D. McIlrath	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+250	-340	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+950	-2000	1	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+300	-500	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+2300	-10000	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
WSH J. Sourdif	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+550	-1000	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+850	-1400	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
WSH V. Desharnais	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under

13 of 31 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+220	-220	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+320	-600	1	Over
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+300	-400	1	Over
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+500	–	2	Over
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+145	-155	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+475	–	1	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+200	-265	1	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+240	-265	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+275	-375	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+400	-650	1	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+280	-350	1	Over
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+500	–	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+162	-200	0	Under
WSH V. Desharnais	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+190	-220	1	Over

18 of 31 overs hit (58%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+320	-450	1	Over
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+170	-230	1	Over
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+140	-155	1	Over
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+320	–	2	Over
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	-132	+110	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+285	–	2	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+120	-140	1	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	-135	+110	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+120	-140	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+320	-475	1	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+300	–	2	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	-134	+110	0	Under
WSH V. Desharnais	0.5	+270	-280	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+250	-325	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+320	-700	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+310	-650	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+360	-800	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+340	-750	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+270	-500	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+250	-350	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+380	-900	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+333	-300	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+375	-500	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+310	-650	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+290	-375	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+360	-800	Under
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+290	-425	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+270	-500	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WSH L. Thompson	23.5	-115	-115	22	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	-165	+115	3	Over
SEA B. Montour	1.5	+105	-145	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.5	-130	-105	4	Over
WSH V. Desharnais	1.5	+100	-140	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, WSH 3.3	SEA 5, WSH 3
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	SEA 25.6, WSH 28.8	SEA 27, WSH 36
Win chance	WSH 59%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	3	0.82	1	34%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	8	0.66	0	19%	0
WSH A. Tuch	2.6	2	0.79	0	31%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.5	4	0.53	1	25%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.49	1	16%	0
SEA M. Samoskevich	2.1	1	0.43	0	17%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.1	2	0.62	1	24%	1
WSH J. Kyrou	2.1	1	0.63	1	25%	1
WSH R. Leonard	2.0	4	0.54	1	20%	0
WSH B. Jenner	2.0	5	0.51	1	22%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	3	0.78	0	29%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.49	1	12%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	1	0.63	1	22%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.7	6	0.55	1	20%	1
WSH J. Sourdif	1.6	0	0.54	0	21%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.6	0	0.33	0	15%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	1	0.52	0	20%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.6	1	0.28	2	8%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.5	2	0.73	0	22%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.4	5	0.39	1	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.27	1	8%	0
WSH I. Protas	1.3	1	0.55	1	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	3	0.41	0	17%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	1.2	0	0.26	0	6%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.52	1	16%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	2	0.32	2	14%	1
WSH E. Frank	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	1	0.24	2	11%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	0	0.55	1	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.32	0	7%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.28	1	8%	0
WSH V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.4	0	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.