Game Recap: SJS 5, ANA 4, December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS5

FinalMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

SJS beat ANA 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 1.64 expected goals to 5.09. ANA outshot SJS 42 to 13. T. Terry led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Gauthier had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. Y. Askarov stopped 38 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	2	2	1	5
ANA	1	1	2	4

1st 10:43SJSM. Ferraro0.08 xG
1st 15:02ANAT. Terry0.66 xG
1st 19:12SJSM. Celebrini0.26 xG
2nd 6:30SJSI. Chernyshov0.15 xG
2nd 12:17SJSW. Eklund0.08 xG
2nd 16:26ANAC. Gauthier0.06 xG
3rd 3:07ANAP. Mintyukov0.17 xG
3rd 13:47SJSZ. Ostapchuk0.05 xG
3rd 15:58ANAT. Terry0.33 xG

Team Stats

SJSANA

13Shots on goal42

1.64Expected goals5.09

36Shot attempts84

115v5 shots on goal35

0/2Power play0/3

17Hits18

19Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways16

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.64 xGANA 5.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS13 on goal, 5 scored

ANA42 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	1	0	1	0	0	16:14	1:16
A. Wennberg	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	19:38	2:15
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:44	2:17
I. Chernyshov	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	15:53	1:44
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:10	2:16
B. Goodrow	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	12:22	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:45	0:44
Z. Ostapchuk	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	8:27	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	21:15	1:45
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	17:10	0:39
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:49	2:25
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:55	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	1	0	1	2	3	3	0	2	23:34	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	19:07	0:39
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:41	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:32	1:38
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	19:16	2:22
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	18:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	42	38	4	.905	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	2	1	3	3	0	1	+2	2	18:51	3:27
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	9	1	1	+1	0	17:04	1:39
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	19:25	4:22
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:42	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:21	4:11
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:04	4:21
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	18:04	2:35
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:01	3:01
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:21	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:22	0:21
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	9:09	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	24:37	4:43
P. Mintyukov	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:28	0:56
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	17:52	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	24:42	1:37
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:55	0:21
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	11:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	9	5	4	.556	32:17
P. Mrazek	4	3	1	.750	23:56	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund16:19M. Celebrini14:07I. Chernyshov14:09

Line 2A. Wennberg14:07C. Graf13:34T. Toffoli12:34

Line 3A. Gaudette10:01T. Dellandrea11:04J. Skinner9:24

Line 4R. Reaves8:55Z. Ostapchuk8:27B. Goodrow10:08

Pair 1D. Orlov17:53J. Klingberg16:20

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:25S. Mukhamadullin16:17

Pair 3S. Dickinson14:35V. Iorio12:36

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish12:50B. Sennecke12:52C. Gauthier13:22

Line 2M. Granlund12:29L. Carlsson12:51C. Kreider12:47

Line 3T. Terry13:19N. Nesterenko12:39R. Poehling12:06

Line 4A. Killorn9:47J. Harkins9:09R. Strome9:01

Pair 1J. Trouba20:15O. Zellweger14:34

Pair 2P. Mintyukov17:15I. Moore16:32

Pair 3J. LaCombe15:57D. Helleson11:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Trouba SJS First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20262 SOG
Old teamMikael Granlund ANA Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.8, ANA 3.5	SJS 5, ANA 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	SJS 26.3, ANA 32.6	SJS 13, ANA 42
Win chance	ANA 62%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	1	1.28	3	34%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.5	9	0.89	2	32%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.7	0	0.78	1	31%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.5	3	0.89	3	29%	2
ANA C. Kreider	2.5	3	0.80	0	39%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.5	1	0.78	1	22%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	5	0.72	1	26%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	3	0.93	0	30%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.1	1	0.70	1	16%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	1	0.82	0	25%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	2	0.86	0	23%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	2.1	2	0.53	1	15%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	2	0.39	0	9%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.8	1	0.65	0	15%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	0	0.47	0	22%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.37	0	9%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	1	0.55	0	22%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.4	0	0.36	1	19%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.46	0	8%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.4	0	0.61	2	17%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.3	2	0.29	1	7%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	0	0.47	1	16%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	3	0.33	1	14%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	1	0.41	0	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.25	1	5%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	3	0.37	1	8%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	1	0.24	0	8%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.17	1	5%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.28	0	7%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.19	1	9%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.19	1	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.14	0	8%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	2	0.09	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.