Game Recap: SJS 3, OTT 5, March 1, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat SJS 5-3, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 2.85. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Dellandrea had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Ullmark stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	2	1	3
OTT	1	0	4	5

1st 11:05OTTS. PintoSH0.22 xG
2nd 5:17SJST. ToffoliPP0.06 xG
2nd 9:47SJST. LiljegrenPP0.07 xG
3rd 1:26OTTB. TkachukPP0.09 xG
3rd 3:00OTTT. Stützle0.11 xG
3rd 8:31OTTD. Perron0.51 xG
3rd 18:33SJSW. SmithPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:00OTTM. AmadioEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

SJSOTT

37Shots on goal32

2.85Expected goals3.53

70Shot attempts65

295v5 shots on goal20

3/4Power play1/4

21Hits20

17Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways12

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.85 xGOTT 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS35 on goal, 3 scored

OTT31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	5	2	0	-3	0	19:25	3:31
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	0	16:55	3:31
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:26	1:49
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	0	18:32	3:31
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-3	0	16:54	3:31
K. Kostin	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	9:00	0:17
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	17:50	0:44
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:25	1:49
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:19	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	-1	4	12:38	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	11:39	1:01
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:28	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	16:05	1:01
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	23:49	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	-2	2	22:18	2:43
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:33	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:16	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-1	0	12:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	31	27	4	.871	57:52	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	21:30	4:42
R. Greig	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	2	16:45	0:54
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:06	4:42
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	6	3	0	0	4	17:48	4:42
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	16:33	1:00
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	+2	0	15:12	0:00
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:51	1:40
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:24	4:42
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	16:00	1:45
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:29	1:54
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8:45	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:38	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	+1	0	26:29	4:42
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	22:59	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	2	20:00	1:54
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+3	0	17:15	0:23
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:39	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	37	34	3	.919	59:35	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamWilliam Eklund OTT First game against SJS since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamAdam Gaudette SJS Faces OTT, his team until May 20252 SOG
Old teamFabian Zetterlund OTT Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, OTT 3.5	SJS 3, OTT 5
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	SJS 25.7, OTT 32.8	SJS 37, OTT 32
Win chance	OTT 64%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.6	6	1.05	1	38%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	5	0.79	2	27%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.7	3	0.68	1	14%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.7	3	0.64	1	29%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	2	0.94	1	30%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	4	0.68	1	11%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	3	1.17	2	32%	1
SJS J. Walman	2.3	5	0.47	0	13%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.2	3	0.89	0	28%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.56	1	22%	1
OTT D. Perron	2.0	2	0.66	1	25%	1
OTT J. Norris	2.0	0	0.71	0	33%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.9	0	0.44	0	18%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.64	1	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	1	0.51	2	22%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	3	0.52	1	24%	1
SJS W. Smith	1.5	2	0.51	2	17%	1
OTT N. Gregor	1.5	0	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.5	1	0.38	0	14%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.4	3	0.28	0	16%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	2	0.39	0	19%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.3	0	0.34	1	8%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.18	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.2	1	0.06	0	3%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.2	3	0.21	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	2	0.25	1	6%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.40	1	14%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	4	0.29	0	12%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.20	0	5%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	4	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	0	0.26	1	13%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.