Game Recap: SJS 6, PIT 5 (OT), December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS6

Final/OTSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

SJS beat PIT 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 5.22 expected goals to 5.04. PIT outshot SJS 43 to 31. T. Toffoli led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). R. Shea had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. Y. Askarov stopped 38 of 43.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	1	0	4	1	6
PIT	1	3	1	0	5

1st 10:27SJST. Toffoli0.03 xG
1st 12:41PITS. CrosbyPP0.23 xG
2nd 0:19PITR. McGroarty0.04 xG
2nd 9:42PITK. Hayes0.42 xG
2nd 19:53PITB. RustPP0.14 xG
3rd 5:25PITA. ManthaPP0.19 xG
3rd 7:33SJSJ. KlingbergPP0.12 xG
3rd 14:19SJSW. Eklund0.64 xG
3rd 17:33SJSM. Celebrini0.13 xG
3rd 18:22SJST. Toffoli0.26 xG
OT 2:57SJSJ. Klingberg0.13 xG

Team Stats

SJSPIT

31Shots on goal43

5.22Expected goals5.04

74Shot attempts74

235v5 shots on goal27

1/4Power play3/5

17Hits14

16Blocked shots21

14Penalty minutes12

18Giveaways9

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 5.22 xGPIT 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS31 on goal, 6 scored

PIT41 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Toffoli	C	2	2	4	5	1	0	+2	0	16:17	4:16
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	6	1	0	+3	6	27:14	3:53
A. Wennberg	C	0	3	3	3	0	2	+3	0	23:34	4:35
W. Eklund	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	0	22:29	3:40
C. Graf	RW	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	19:17	1:15
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	8:23	1:15
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:13	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	14:59	1:34
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	14:46	2:49
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:56	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:03	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	6:28	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	2	0	2	2	2	2	+3	0	24:34	3:35
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	14:31	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	22:41	2:15
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	21:10	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	16:51	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	14:34	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	43	38	5	.884	61:11	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	2	3	3	0	1	-3	0	21:45	5:51
A. Mantha	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	2	18:50	5:50
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	5	1	2	-3	0	22:27	5:54
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	16:54	0:16
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	13:24	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	12:26	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	10:40	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	9:19	0:19
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:13	5:58
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:40	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:46	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	9:24	0:10
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	2	29:21	6:02
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	19:57	0:18
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	20:37	0:17
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-3	2	19:52	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	14:23	0:05
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	31	25	6	.806	62:44	OT loss
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith12:21M. Celebrini17:29P. Kurashev8:00

Line 2T. Toffoli10:15A. Wennberg12:09C. Graf11:00

Line 3T. Dellandrea11:07W. Eklund14:05J. Skinner11:28

Line 4R. Reaves6:17B. Goodrow7:02A. Gaudette6:58

Pair 1D. Orlov16:33J. Klingberg16:13

Pair 2N. Leddy12:18M. Ferraro14:37

Pair 3S. Dickinson13:09V. Iorio11:49

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby12:09R. Rakell12:21B. Rust10:19

Line 2A. Mantha12:47T. Novak11:45V. Koivunen11:33

Line 3R. McGroarty11:11B. Kindel11:36J. Brazeau9:14

Line 4K. Hayes8:18N. Acciari8:44C. Dewar7:38

Pair 1K. Letang14:00R. Shea15:12

Pair 2C. Clifton13:07R. Graves14:18

Pair 3E. Karlsson15:14P. Wotherspoon13:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Nedeljkovic SJS Faces PIT, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, PIT 3.5	SJS 6, PIT 5
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	SJS 24.7, PIT 31.7	SJS 31, PIT 43
Win chance	PIT 65%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	3.1	5	1.32	2	41%	1
PIT B. Rust	3.0	3	1.00	3	36%	1
PIT B. Kindel	3.0	1	0.50	1	25%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	6	1.00	3	29%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.7	4	0.90	1	17%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	3	0.80	0	30%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	5	0.62	4	26%	2
SJS W. Smith	2.1	4	0.72	0	24%	0
PIT A. Mantha	2.0	2	0.74	3	28%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	3	0.68	2	20%	1
PIT K. Hayes	2.0	2	0.46	1	19%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.0	3	0.51	1	11%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.9	2	0.63	0	24%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	2	0.47	0	22%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.8	4	0.31	1	14%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	2	0.50	2	11%	2
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.34	1	15%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	3	0.45	0	19%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.4	1	0.36	1	19%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.4	0	0.46	0	16%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.4	0	0.35	0	11%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	2	0.42	0	8%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	2	0.26	0	9%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	0	0.39	2	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	3	0.51	3	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.28	0	4%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.12	1	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	0	0.21	1	11%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	2	0.24	0	4%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	2	0.17	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	4	0.26	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.23	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.