SJS beat TOR 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.22 expected goals to 3.86. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Smith had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Georgiev stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 8:28TORJ. TavaresPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:55TORM. KniesPP0.43 xG
- 3rd 2:23SJSJ. Thompson0.02 xG
- 3rd 10:10SJST. Toffoli0.23 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.22 xGTOR 3.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:14 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:49 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 14:42 | 2:44 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 2:51 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 2:44 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:02 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:30 | 1:10 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:02 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:08 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 1:11 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:01 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 27:38 | 2:35 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 25:59 | 0:02 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 1:25 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 65:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:33 | 6:44 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:29 | 7:24 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:55 | 7:10 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:53 | 5:15 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:43 | 7:16 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:22 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:55 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:18 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:28 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:13 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, TOR 3.6 | SJS 3, TOR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.9, TOR 31.3 | SJS 22, TOR 27 |
| Win chance | TOR 64% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.4 | 6 | 1.38 | 1 | 50% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.5 | 6 | 1.19 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.1 | 1 | 1.02 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 1 | 1.39 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.4 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.6 | 6 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.