Game Recap: SJS 1, TOR 3, October 19, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS1

FinalMon, Oct 19, 2026Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat SJS 3-1, with the chances close: 4.29 expected goals to 3.58. A. Matthews led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	0	1
TOR	0	1	2	3

1st 13:54SJSM. Marchment0.18 xG
2nd 19:48TORA. MatthewsPP0.13 xG
3rd 4:56TORG. McKennaPP0.13 xG
3rd 19:20TORN. PaulEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

SJSTOR

31Shots on goal32

3.58Expected goals4.29

61Shot attempts66

275v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play2/5

19Hits15

9Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways11

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.58 xGTOR 4.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS30 on goal, 1 scored

TOR32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	15:52	3:01
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:36	2:56
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	2	22:03	4:51
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:59	4:38
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:29	4:38
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:59	2:49
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:30	3:07
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:27	4:46
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:21	0:15
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	13:35	0:16
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:48	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:05	0:17
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	23:53	0:01
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:23	0:09
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:20	0:18
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:02	0:15
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	15:21	4:28
L. Cagnoni	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	12:52	3:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	31	29	2	.935	58:59	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	2	3	3	0	1	0	0	20:57	5:04
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:47	5:05
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	2	18:52	0:14
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:21	5:09
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:15	0:04
G. McKenna	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:30	4:31
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:19	1:09
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:13	1:01
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:42	0:10
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:20	1:49
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	5:56	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	0	26:39	5:07
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	0	2	23:01	0:14
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:05	1:02
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	20:13	0:18
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	14:42	0:04
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:16	0:59

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith14:57M. Celebrini15:09I. Chernyshov13:10

Line 2T. Toffoli9:39M. Marchment11:46A. Wennberg10:00

Line 3M. Misa10:01K. Sherwood12:19I. Stenberg8:31

Line 4Z. Ostapchuk6:49C. Graf9:34B. Goodrow5:47

Pair 1D. Nurse18:04M. Kesselring16:59

Pair 2J. Trouba15:56S. Dickinson15:06

Pair 3D. Orlov9:35L. Cagnoni9:33

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic13:14A. Matthews13:31E. Cowan12:54

Line 2N. Paul14:43W. Nylander13:09K. Marchenko11:59

Line 3C. Sissons11:10V. Lettieri7:31G. McKenna6:59

Line 4T. Blueger7:42B. Duhaime8:01Z. MacEwen5:56

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:20J. McCabe16:07

Pair 2M. Rielly17:21T. Stecher15:19

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson11:47N. Blankenburg9:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 16 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	+100	-105	3	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	+100	-115	5	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+100	-125	5	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	2.5	-105	-125	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	-102	+100	3	Over
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+115	-130	4	Over
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	-135	+120	3	Over
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	-120	-105	2	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.5	+100	-130	2	Over
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-110	-120	1	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-115	-102	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-110	-105	4	Over
SJS M. Misa	1.5	+108	–	1	Under
TOR N. Paul	1.5	+125	-140	1	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-152	+120	2	Over
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	-200	+150	0	Under

3 of 32 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+115	-160	1	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+420	-600	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+470	-650	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+125	-160	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+410	-500	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+350	-600	1	Over
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
TOR V. Lettieri	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+170	–	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.5	+1100	-4000	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under

5 of 23 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+105	-120	2	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+170	-185	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+190	-195	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+110	-140	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+270	-290	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+240	-310	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+260	-340	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+245	–	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+300	-350	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+100	-135	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under

7 of 23 overs hit (30%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TOR A. Matthews	1.5	+165	-200	3	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+150	-175	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+185	-255	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+145	-155	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-130	+110	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+210	-255	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	-130	+110	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+115	-160	1	Over
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+200	–	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+380	–	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-250	–	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+180	-215	2	Over
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+230	-290	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+500	-550	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+270	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS Y. Askarov	25.5	-105	-130	29	Over
TOR S. Bobrovsky	24.5	-120	-105	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TOR J. McCabe	1.5	-190	+135	5	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDarnell Nurse SJS Plays near home (born in Hamilton)3 SOG
HometownMason Marchment SJS Plays near home (born in Uxbridge)1 G, 4 SOG
HometownMichael Misa SJS Plays near home (born in Oakville)1 SOG
HometownSam Dickinson SJS Plays in his hometown2 SOG
HometownTyler Toffoli SJS Plays near home (born in Scarborough)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.2, TOR 3.5	SJS 1, TOR 3
Total goals	6.7	4
Shots on goal	SJS 29.1, TOR 27.1	SJS 31, TOR 32
Win chance	TOR 55%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	3	1.32	3	48%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.9	5	1.38	0	37%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	3	1.41	1	45%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.9	5	0.92	1	20%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.7	4	0.96	0	30%	0
TOR K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.93	1	33%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	2.3	0	0.63	0	25%	0
SJS D. Nurse	2.1	3	0.34	0	10%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	2	0.54	1	21%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.0	0	0.47	0	20%	0
TOR V. Lettieri	2.0	1	0.38	0	18%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.9	1	0.36	0	9%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.9	4	0.66	1	24%	1
TOR G. McKenna	1.9	1	0.56	1	20%	1
SJS M. Kesselring	1.7	2	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.7	2	0.60	0	20%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.6	1	0.48	1	23%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.56	0	21%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.6	1	0.53	0	17%	0
SJS L. Cagnoni	1.4	1	0.34	0	9%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	3	0.51	0	11%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.49	0	16%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	2	0.42	0	16%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.3	2	0.36	1	15%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.60	0	17%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.2	2	0.36	0	13%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.1	1	0.39	0	8%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.0	1	0.35	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.36	0	8%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.9	0	0.12	0	7%	0
TOR N. Blankenburg	0.8	2	0.24	0	7%	0
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.8	2	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.