Game Recap: SJS 3, UTA 6, October 17, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalFri, Oct 17, 2025Every game that night

UTA6

UTA beat SJS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 1.71. UTA outshot SJS 34 to 21. N. Schmaltz scored three for UTA. N. Schmaltz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	2	1	3
UTA	2	1	3	6

1st 9:39UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.24 xG
1st 13:31UTAN. Schmaltz0.17 xG
2nd 5:23SJST. ToffoliPP0.01 xG
2nd 7:13SJSJ. Skinner0.01 xG
2nd 16:09UTAL. O'Brien0.23 xG
3rd 0:54UTAN. Schmaltz0.27 xG
3rd 3:25UTAM. Carcone0.19 xG
3rd 11:32UTAC. Keller0.09 xG
3rd 16:51SJSM. CelebriniPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

SJSUTA

21Shots on goal34

1.71Expected goals3.41

37Shot attempts60

155v5 shots on goal25

2/3Power play1/4

25Hits14

12Blocked shots8

18Penalty minutes18

17Giveaways17

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.71 xGUTA 3.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 3 scored

UTA33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	2	17:24	2:07
J. Skinner	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:02	0:55
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	19:37	1:20
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	16:42	2:49
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	0	12:19	2:52
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:52	2:50
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:48	0:59
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	14:17	0:19
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:50	0:19
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:45	0:42
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	0	9:57	0:19
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:21	0:38
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	4	22:49	3:18
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	10	14:04	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	-3	0	22:34	0:19
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	22:32	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	19:21	0:19
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:14	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	34	28	6	.824	60:00	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	3	1	4	6	0	0	+3	0	18:40	3:56
C. Keller	RW	1	3	4	3	1	0	+3	0	17:42	3:59
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	4	16:21	3:55
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	4	4	0	+1	0	16:18	2:51
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	15:54	2:51
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:19	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	10:09	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	9:11	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	17:34	3:51
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:15	3:01
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	2	16:01	2:54
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:02	0:14
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	19:39	0:04
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	23:58	4:03
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	21:17	2:57
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	20:29	0:14
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:40	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10	13:29	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	21	18	3	.857	59:55	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1P. Kurashev15:37M. Celebrini15:04J. Skinner13:02

Line 2A. Wennberg14:55W. Eklund14:52T. Toffoli13:53

Line 3R. Reaves9:38B. Goodrow11:04A. Gaudette8:43

Line 4T. Dellandrea10:16C. Graf9:31W. Smith9:27

Pair 1N. Leddy19:04D. Orlov18:39

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:39V. Iorio15:58

Pair 3V. Desharnais10:54S. Dickinson14:44

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:52C. Keller13:38B. Hayton13:03

Line 2J. Peterka14:09D. Guenther13:19L. Cooley11:59

Line 3J. McBain11:57L. Crouse10:49M. Carcone12:19

Line 4L. O'Brien10:09K. Stenlund12:14B. Tanev8:52

Pair 1N. Schmidt16:44J. Marino18:39

Pair 2M. Sergachev17:20D. Simashev13:19

Pair 3I. Cole16:58O. Maatta14:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, UTA 4.0	SJS 3, UTA 6
Total goals	6.6	9
Shots on goal	SJS 23.9, UTA 33.0	SJS 21, UTA 34
Win chance	UTA 71%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.4	4	1.06	0	36%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.9	3	1.23	4	36%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.77	2	24%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	4	0.67	1	29%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.5	0	1.01	1	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	6	0.93	4	27%	3
UTA J. Peterka	2.3	4	0.87	0	29%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.1	0	0.61	1	22%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	1	0.84	0	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	0	0.65	1	21%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.62	0	18%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	2	0.48	2	22%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	4	0.38	1	21%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	2	0.37	1	8%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.5	0	0.41	0	19%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	2	0.49	0	18%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	2	0.42	0	9%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	3	0.39	1	18%	1
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	1	0.40	0	14%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	2	0.19	1	7%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.43	1	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA B. Tanev	1.0	1	0.26	1	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	0.9	2	0.26	0	13%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.39	0	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.23	1	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	0	0.22	0	3%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.10	1	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.