VGK beat SJS 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 2.52. VGK outshot SJS 42 to 26. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Dorofeyev had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Samsonov stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| VGK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 1:57VGKT. Pearson0.09 xG
- 1st 3:47VGKJ. Eichel0.10 xG
- 1st 16:46VGKB. Howden0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:13SJSM. Granlund0.79 xG
- 2nd 11:10VGKW. KarlssonSH0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:26VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:41SJSN. Sturm0.06 xG
- 3rd 11:10VGKM. Stone0.08 xG
- 3rd 13:29SJSL. Kunin0.16 xG
- 3rd 17:07VGKB. Howden0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.52 xGVGK 3.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:58 | 2:33 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:33 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:16 |
| L. Kunin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:05 | 0:59 |
| N. Sturm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:33 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:33 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:36 | 1:02 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:16 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:14 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:17 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:16 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:42 | 2:33 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 42 | 35 | 7 | .833 | 60:00 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:15 | 4:56 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:31 | 3:42 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:33 | 5:21 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 3:59 |
| B. Howden | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:03 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:18 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:37 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:05 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:37 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:36 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:31 | 5:21 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:33 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.5, VGK 3.9 | SJS 3, VGK 7 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.9, VGK 33.4 | SJS 26, VGK 42 |
| Win chance | VGK 70% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.9 | 4 | 1.27 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.3 | 9 | 0.64 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.2 | 0 | 0.66 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 3 | 1.11 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.4 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.