Game Recap: SJS 3, VGK 4, November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat SJS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.54 expected goals to 2.39. W. Smith led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Lindbom stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	2	0	3
VGK	1	3	0	4

1st 7:34SJSW. Smith0.11 xG
1st 16:13VGKT. Hertl0.16 xG
2nd 5:36VGKC. Sissons0.60 xG
2nd 7:02VGKM. Marner0.02 xG
2nd 12:38VGKT. HertlPP0.11 xG
2nd 14:40SJSW. SmithPP0.25 xG
2nd 19:35SJSW. Eklund0.19 xG

Team Stats

SJSVGK

21Shots on goal24

2.39Expected goals4.54

55Shot attempts66

185v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play1/2

25Hits6

22Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.39 xGVGK 4.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS21 on goal, 3 scored

VGK24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	19:53	1:09
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	20:10	1:09
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:55	1:09
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:53	0:35
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:43	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	18:47	1:09
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:04	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:56	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:58	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:14	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:07	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:22	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+2	0	22:20	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	-2	2	20:47	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	23:15	1:09
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	21:58	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:33	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	14:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	24	20	4	.833	58:16	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	-1	0	17:22	3:36
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	16:31	3:36
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:58	3:36
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	19:55	3:36
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	17:29	3:36
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:39	0:00
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:25	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:43	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	11:33	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:00	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:29	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	2	22:44	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:20	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:49	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:22	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+3	0	12:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith17:35M. Celebrini17:52T. Toffoli15:09

Line 2A. Wennberg16:01W. Eklund17:11A. Gaudette14:43

Line 3T. Dellandrea12:48C. Graf13:54P. Kurashev12:58

Line 4R. Reaves8:07B. Goodrow8:14Z. Ostapchuk7:22

Pair 1M. Ferraro18:44J. Klingberg20:57

Pair 2D. Orlov20:47T. Liljegren18:22

Pair 3N. Leddy15:33S. Mukhamadullin14:13

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev16:34B. Bowman15:16J. Eichel15:21

Line 2T. Hertl13:03P. Dorofeyev13:53A. Holtz12:22

Line 3M. Stone15:18B. Howden13:56M. Marner12:12

Line 4C. Sissons11:51C. Reinhardt11:33K. Kolesar11:09

Pair 1B. McNabb21:01S. Theodore20:37

Pair 2N. Hanifin20:14Z. Whitecloud19:47

Pair 3B. Hutton13:29K. Korczak12:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTomas Hertl VGK Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20242 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.3, VGK 3.7	SJS 3, VGK 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	SJS 22.5, VGK 33.4	SJS 21, VGK 24
Win chance	VGK 72%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.8	2	1.29	1	37%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.2	0	0.74	1	35%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	4	0.90	1	28%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.8	3	0.84	2	31%	2
VGK S. Theodore	2.3	1	0.76	0	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.3	1	0.55	0	12%	0
VGK B. Bowman	2.3	1	0.74	0	26%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	0	1.05	1	30%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	4	0.70	2	23%	2
VGK M. Marner	2.0	2	1.25	2	31%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	1.9	1	0.49	1	22%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	1	0.63	1	19%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	3	0.70	0	25%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.48	1	23%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.4	0	0.27	0	14%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	1	0.41	0	9%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	2	0.25	1	6%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	1	0.40	1	8%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.32	1	17%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	1	0.39	0	14%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.2	1	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.48	0	15%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.29	1	11%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.0	1	0.35	0	13%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	1	0.28	1	11%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	2	0.24	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.20	1	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	1	0.22	1	10%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	1	0.19	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.11	0	5%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.