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Game Recap
STL2
FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
CHI4

CHI beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.65 expected goals to 2.95. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McMichael had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Knight stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
STL1012
CHI0224
  1. 1st 15:38STLM. McTavish0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 5:40CHIS. RinzelPP0.53 xG
  3. 2nd 7:40CHIA. Frondell0.14 xG
  4. 3rd 18:51CHIC. SmithEN0.80 xG
  5. 3rd 19:21STLC. McMichaelPP0.23 xG
  6. 3rd 19:56CHIF. NazarEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

STLCHI
28Shots on goal21
2.95Expected goals3.65
60Shot attempts41
205v5 shots on goal14
1/2Power play1/2
28Hits18
8Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways16
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.95 xGCHI 3.65 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdSTL goal, 15:38CHI goal, 5:40CHI goal, 7:40CHI goal, 18:51STL goal, 19:21CHI goal, 19:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL27 on goal, 2 scored
CHI21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW112501-2017:531:42
P. BuchnevichLW011210-1017:430:59
M. McTavishC101230-1017:201:01
R. ThomasC000300-2020:302:44
J. SnuggerudRW000310-1018:582:44
D. HollowayLW000150-1016:032:44
J. BerggrenRW0001100215:490:33
J. NeighboursLW000060-1015:152:44
P. SuterC0000100013:180:00
D. DvorskyRW0001100010:510:47
D. DubeC0000100010:120:00
R. JohnstonLW000141027:150:00
P. BrobergD011111-2022:260:45
C. FowlerD000201-1023:040:16
C. ParaykoD0002020020:100:14
A. JiricekD000211-1018:122:44
B. CarloD000111+1017:580:00
T. LindsteinD0001100014:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer19172.89558:14Loss
J. Binnington000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. NazarC112301+1019:350:55
A. FrondellC112110+2018:373:06
T. BertuzziLW011020+2017:493:07
C. SmithRW101100+1014:380:00
N. LardisLW011010-109:390:53
T. TeravainenC011010+109:310:00
P. KaneRW0002110220:553:07
R. KantserovRW0002110220:363:03
R. GreeneC000112+1014:000:00
J. GreenwayLW0001300012:420:00
O. MooreC000030-1012:160:53
R. DonatoC000122-109:270:38
A. LevshunovD011100+1018:000:00
S. RinzelD1012100017:450:57
A. VlasicD000102+1021:480:00
B. ByramD000201+1021:223:05
I. ColeD0001020019:380:00
W. KaiserD000211+1017:570:16
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight28262.92960:00Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:28J. Snuggerud16:14D. Holloway13:19
Line 2C. McMichael14:37M. McTavish15:45J. Berggren15:16
Line 3J. Neighbours12:15D. Dvorsky10:04P. Buchnevich14:15
Line 4P. Suter11:28D. Dube8:57R. Johnston7:15
Pair 1C. Fowler21:06B. Carlo16:26
Pair 2P. Broberg18:49A. Jiricek15:28
Pair 3C. Parayko16:54T. Lindstein14:49

CHI

Line 1P. Kane17:48F. Nazar17:17R. Kantserov17:31
Line 2T. Bertuzzi14:08A. Frondell13:48T. Teravainen8:42
Line 3J. Greenway11:25C. Smith12:51R. Greene12:23
Line 4R. Donato8:49N. Lardis8:46O. Moore11:23
Pair 1I. Cole16:41A. Vlasic18:44
Pair 2B. Byram18:06A. Levshunov17:11
Pair 3S. Rinzel16:46W. Kaiser16:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
STL D. Holloway2.5-125+1051Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5-111-1023Over
STL M. McTavish2.5+130-1522Under
CHI P. Kane2.5+105-1152Under
CHI A. Frondell1.5-180+1501Under
CHI B. Byram1.5+110-1252Over
STL C. Fowler1.5+140-1752Over
STL C. McMichael1.5-125+1055Over
STL C. Parayko1.5-140+1102Over
CHI F. Nazar1.5-160+1503Over
STL J. Neighbours1.5+100-1350Under
CHI N. Lardis1.5+105-1250Under
STL P. Buchnevich1.5+105-1252Over
STL R. Thomas1.5-125+1003Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5-145+1360Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSTL 3.3, CHI 2.7STL 2, CHI 4
Total goals5.96
Shots on goalSTL 27.3, CHI 25.1STL 28, CHI 21
Win chanceSTL 60%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL D. Holloway2.710.84028%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.530.78025%0
CHI P. Kane2.520.83025%0
CHI A. Frondell2.410.59218%1
STL M. McTavish2.020.53119%1
CHI F. Nazar1.930.53220%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.800.63127%0
STL C. McMichael1.750.58220%1
STL R. Thomas1.731.04026%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.620.2716%1
CHI B. Byram1.620.49012%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.520.59121%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.510.3514%0
STL P. Suter1.500.47019%0
CHI R. Donato1.410.40018%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.410.33016%0
STL J. Berggren1.310.45018%0
CHI R. Greene1.310.34014%0
STL C. Parayko1.320.3009%0
CHI N. Lardis1.300.33116%0
STL P. Broberg1.210.45110%0
STL J. Neighbours1.200.50020%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.100.49118%0
STL T. Lindstein1.110.2808%0
STL C. Fowler1.120.5009%0
STL D. Dube1.100.28012%0
STL B. Carlo1.010.1504%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.020.2206%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2503%0
CHI J. Greenway1.010.24010%0
CHI O. Moore1.000.3009%0
CHI C. Smith0.910.21110%1
CHI I. Cole0.810.2203%0
STL R. Johnston0.610.1805%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.