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Game Recap
STL2
DAL3
DAL beat STL 3-2, with the chances close: 1.92 expected goals to 2.06. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Oettinger stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:41DALW. JohnstonPP0.26 xG
- 1st 11:30STLD. DvorskyPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:04STLP. Buchnevich0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:44DALM. DuchenePP0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:00DALJ. Robertson0.16 xG
Team Stats
STLDAL
22Shots on goal19
2.06Expected goals1.92
44Shot attempts41
185v5 shots on goal12
1/3Power play2/5
26Hits16
10Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways12
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.06 xGDAL 1.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:42 | 2:27 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:17 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 2:12 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 2:25 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:13 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 3:01 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 3:17 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:50 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:27 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:50 | 2:52 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | 2:24 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 59:00 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:54 | 7:03 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 6:06 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:21 | 6:20 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:50 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:28 | 6:55 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:02 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:50 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 1:47 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:22 | 1:05 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:00 | 6:20 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:02 | 1:58 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:42 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:16 | 0:02 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:48 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1J. Kyrou12:25J. Neighbours13:50P. Buchnevich12:00
Line 2J. Berggren12:26J. Snuggerud12:19B. Schenn11:33
Line 3N. Bjugstad11:03R. Fabbri10:56A. Toropchenko8:44
Line 4M. Joseph9:37O. Stenberg9:24D. Dvorsky10:56
Pair 1P. Broberg16:29C. Parayko16:40
Pair 2C. Fowler15:03L. Mailloux14:37
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen14:21J. Robertson14:24R. Hintz12:54
Line 2M. Duchene12:09S. Steel13:01W. Johnston9:49
Line 3M. Bourque11:39J. Hryckowian9:47J. Benn10:17
Line 4C. Blackwell8:31R. Faksa10:00O. Bäck8:36
Pair 1N. Lundkvist19:02T. Harley22:19
Pair 2E. Lindell15:32M. Heiskanen15:44
Pair 3K. Capobianco10:50I. Lyubushkin6:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.8, DAL 3.1 | STL 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.3, DAL 25.9 | STL 22, DAL 19 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 3 | 1.04 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 4 | 0.81 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.81 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.6 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.