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Game Recap
STL1
OTT8
OTT beat STL 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.58 expected goals to 1.79. OTT outshot STL 35 to 27. T. Stützle led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Gaudette had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Ullmark stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| OTT | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 1:04OTTJ. Norris0.15 xG
- 1st 4:44OTTN. Gregor0.15 xG
- 1st 15:04OTTT. Stützle0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:55OTTB. TkachukPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 11:08OTTB. TkachukPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:50OTTA. Gaudette0.19 xG
- 3rd 7:31OTTT. Stützle0.16 xG
- 3rd 9:04STLD. HollowayPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:27OTTA. Gaudette0.09 xG
Team Stats
STLOTT
27Shots on goal35
1.79Expected goals2.58
57Shot attempts62
205v5 shots on goal31
1/4Power play2/3
31Hits21
13Blocked shots18
10Penalty minutes12
22Giveaways9
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.79 xGOTT 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:03 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:21 | 2:55 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:02 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:22 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:22 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:28 | 3:05 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:20 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:25 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:49 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:49 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:44 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:39 | 2:56 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:50 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:06 | 1:19 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:49 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:10 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 10:40 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 31:08 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 28:41 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:50 | 1:15 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:15 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 14:13 | 1:15 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:13 | 1:02 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:15 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:29 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:32 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:05 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 14:14 | 0:28 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:34 | 1:04 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:21 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:15 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:31 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:01 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:12 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.3, OTT 3.4 | STL 1, OTT 8 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | STL 27.7, OTT 33.5 | STL 27, OTT 35 |
| Win chance | OTT 52% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.3 | 7 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.9 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 4 | 0.95 | 4 | 29% | 2 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.3 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.3 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 2.0 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.5 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.5 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 5 | 0.22 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| STL K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.