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Game Recap
STL1
PHI2
PHI beat STL 2-1, with the chances close: 1.49 expected goals to 1.74. S. Ersson stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 11:12PHIG. Hathaway0.12 xG
- 3rd 9:58STLN. Walker0.03 xG
- 3rd 16:59PHIB. Brink0.07 xG
Team Stats
STLPHI
21Shots on goal21
1.74Expected goals1.49
64Shot attempts50
165v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play0/3
24Hits10
14Blocked shots24
6Penalty minutes4
8Giveaways10
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.74 xGPHI 1.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 1:45 |
| N. Walker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:32 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:29 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:37 | 2:03 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 1:58 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 2:02 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:31 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:30 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:58 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:29 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:52 | 0:33 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 1:53 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 | 2:08 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:49 | 0:09 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:36 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:19 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:24 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 2:27 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:05 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 2:21 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:04 | 3:09 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:46 | 2:21 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 3:11 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:24 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 3:13 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 2:25 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 3:14 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:48 | 0:24 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:24 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:20 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:19 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 59:53 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.2, PHI 3.2 | STL 1, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 25.6, PHI 33.4 | STL 21, PHI 21 |
| Win chance | PHI 51% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.5 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.