Game Recap: STL 3, PIT 5, March 13, 2025

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalThu, Mar 13, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat STL 5-3, with the chances close: 2.44 expected goals to 2.36. STL outshot PIT 35 to 22. R. Rakell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Suter had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. T. Jarry stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	1	2	3
PIT	1	2	2	5

1st 2:17PITR. Graves0.02 xG
2nd 2:20PITC. Timmins0.04 xG
2nd 11:35STLZ. BolducPP0.17 xG
2nd 17:42PITC. Dewar0.11 xG
3rd 1:26STLD. HollowayPP0.12 xG
3rd 7:15PITB. Rust0.23 xG
3rd 8:56STLA. Toropchenko0.23 xG
3rd 19:52PITR. RakellEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

STLPIT

35Shots on goal22

2.36Expected goals2.44

72Shot attempts38

315v5 shots on goal21

2/2Power play0/0

21Hits26

9Blocked shots24

0Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways20

9Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.36 xGPIT 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL32 on goal, 3 scored

PIT21 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	22:02	1:21
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	20:52	1:17
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	-3	18:09	0:45
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	15:49	0:42
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	15:19	1:10
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	13:14	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	16:52	0:49
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	15:25	0:52
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	13:22	1:12
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:36	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	12:29	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	9:56	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	19:46	0:47
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	17:59	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	22:19	1:15
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	21:34	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	18:53	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	19	15	4	.789	47:15	Loss
J. Hofer	2	2	0	1.000	10:25

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	20:21	0:00
B. Rust	RW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	20:06	0:00
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	18:25	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	15:03	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	17:57	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	17:03	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	12:40	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:30	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	3	4	+2	0	14:38	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	8:21	0:00
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:29	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:14	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	22:07	0:00
C. Timmins	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	2	16:57	0:00
R. Graves	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	15:17	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+2	0	24:47	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	1	7	+2	2	24:30	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, PIT 2.9	STL 3, PIT 5
Total goals	5.9	8
Shots on goal	STL 27.0, PIT 28.2	STL 35, PIT 22
Win chance	STL 53%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	0	1.13	2	35%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.85	2	31%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	2	0.80	2	30%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	4	0.77	0	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	1	0.75	1	15%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	3	0.68	1	24%	1
PIT K. Letang	2.1	3	0.54	0	12%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	0	1.01	1	26%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	3	0.84	1	27%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.8	0	0.42	0	17%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.8	3	0.77	0	26%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	2	0.51	1	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.69	0	22%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.7	4	0.48	1	17%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.50	1	23%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	4	0.38	0	9%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	2	0.45	1	18%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.48	0	9%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.31	0	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	3	0.25	1	11%	1
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.37	0	4%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.34	1	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.33	2	15%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.19	0	12%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.37	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	2	0.27	0	13%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	2	0.18	0	6%	0
PIT C. Dewar	0.9	4	0.19	1	8%	1
STL R. Faksa	0.9	2	0.23	0	9%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	0	0.27	0	4%	0
PIT C. Timmins	0.8	1	0.22	1	4%	1
PIT V. Kolyachonok	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	1	0.14	1	4%	1
STL R. Suter	0.7	4	0.21	1	3%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.3	0	0.06	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.