Game Recap: STL 3, PIT 6, October 27, 2025

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalMon, Oct 27, 2025Every game that night

PIT6

PIT beat STL 6-3, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 3.34. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Jarry stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	2	0	1	3
PIT	2	1	3	6

1st 0:39PITB. Rust0.10 xG
1st 0:55PITA. Mantha0.16 xG
1st 4:15STLN. Bjugstad0.20 xG
1st 15:43STLJ. Kyrou0.22 xG
2nd 6:37PITP. Wotherspoon0.12 xG
3rd 0:42PITB. Rust0.09 xG
3rd 4:35STLM. Joseph0.11 xG
3rd 16:39PITS. Crosby0.21 xG
3rd 16:59PITE. MalkinEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

STLPIT

28Shots on goal26

3.34Expected goals3.53

66Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play0/0

17Hits9

11Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways30

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.34 xGPIT 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL28 on goal, 3 scored

PIT25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Bjugstad	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	13:29	0:26
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:49	3:23
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	5	1	+1	0	18:13	3:02
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:49	2:33
M. Joseph	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:27	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	0	12:14	0:04
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	19:20	3:16
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:41	2:42
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:27	2:31
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:35	2:48
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:41	2:43
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	10:34	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	15:14	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:10	3:10
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-3	0	22:04	2:50
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	21:45	0:26
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:21	0:06
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	25	20	5	.800	59:53	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	2	1	3	5	0	2	+2	0	18:59	0:00
S. Crosby	C	1	2	3	3	0	2	+3	0	18:02	0:00
E. Malkin	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	2	14:58	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	0	12:49	0:00
F. Hallander	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+3	0	16:59	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+3	0	14:08	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:29	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:11	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	12:05	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:21	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	4	10:48	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	3	3	1	0	3	+3	0	23:52	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+4	0	23:26	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:16	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:27	0:00
H. Brunicke	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	2	15:43	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	28	25	3	.893	59:15	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich15:13P. Suter13:56J. Snuggerud14:59

Line 2B. Schenn13:13J. Kyrou13:55D. Holloway14:28

Line 3N. Walker11:25A. Toropchenko10:29N. Bjugstad12:18

Line 4M. Joseph11:47A. Texier9:58O. Sundqvist11:27

Pair 1C. Fowler18:11C. Parayko19:24

Pair 2J. Faulk17:24P. Broberg19:05

Pair 3T. Tucker15:14L. Mailloux13:14

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:19F. Hallander16:22B. Rust15:27

Line 2A. Mantha13:16J. Brazeau12:36E. Malkin14:06

Line 3N. Acciari11:05C. Dewar10:29B. Lizotte10:39

Line 4T. Novak10:38B. Kindel11:45V. Koivunen10:42

Pair 1E. Karlsson19:20P. Wotherspoon19:28

Pair 2K. Letang17:03R. Shea15:45

Pair 3M. Dumba15:06H. Brunicke15:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.2, PIT 2.9	STL 3, PIT 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	STL 26.3, PIT 26.5	STL 28, PIT 26
Win chance	STL 53%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	3	0.82	1	32%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.7	5	0.85	3	32%	2
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	3	1.08	3	34%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	2	0.77	1	26%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	1	0.66	3	14%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	3	0.84	0	27%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	1	0.81	2	25%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.46	0	11%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	2	0.48	0	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	0	0.52	0	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.62	1	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	1	0.38	0	9%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	2	0.50	0	17%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.6	1	0.37	0	17%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.6	0	0.52	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.5	2	0.60	0	10%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.54	1	21%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.37	0	9%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	0	0.43	0	18%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	3	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
PIT F. Hallander	1.3	2	0.26	1	13%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.3	1	0.26	2	13%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.3	2	0.32	1	10%	1
STL N. Walker	1.2	2	0.32	1	15%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.2	3	0.36	2	17%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.20	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.35	0	12%	0
STL A. Texier	1.0	2	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	1	0.27	0	6%	0
PIT H. Brunicke	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.21	1	2%	1
STL T. Tucker	0.8	0	0.17	1	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.