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Game Recap
STL1
TBL4
TBL beat STL 4-1, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 1.81. D. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:21TBLP. Holmberg0.05 xG
- 1st 9:12TBLD. RaddyshPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 6:43STLJ. Faulk0.04 xG
- 2nd 8:01TBLA. Cirelli0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:36TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
STLTBL
24Shots on goal17
1.81Expected goals2.49
49Shot attempts48
205v5 shots on goal13
0/2Power play2/4
27Hits10
16Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways11
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.81 xGTBL 2.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:43 | 2:16 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:35 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 1:33 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:10 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:34 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:27 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:11 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:14 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:12 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 1:18 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 1:11 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 1:52 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:38 | 0:15 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 1:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:08 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 17 | 13 | 4 | .765 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 5:23 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 3:56 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 5:19 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:09 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 5:18 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:38 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:06 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:10 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 1:56 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:43 | 5:16 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:14 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich12:29R. Thomas12:52J. Berggren13:23
Line 2B. Schenn13:59J. Neighbours15:13O. Stenberg13:28
Line 3R. Fabbri13:38D. Dvorsky11:23M. Joseph12:14
Line 4O. Sundqvist9:54A. Toropchenko10:40P. Suter9:11
Pair 1P. Broberg18:40C. Parayko16:43
Pair 3C. Fowler17:48L. Mailloux12:27
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov12:34B. Point13:46Y. Gourde13:46
Line 2Z. Girgensons12:53A. Cirelli12:15P. Holmberg12:32
Line 3D. James12:36G. Goncalves11:20J. Finley11:01
Line 4N. Paul12:14O. Bjorkstrand11:05J. Guentzel12:24
Pair 1R. McDonagh17:32C. D'Astous19:41
Pair 2J. Moser18:47D. Raddysh17:27
Pair 3M. Crozier12:53D. Carlile12:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.5, TBL 3.2 | STL 1, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.6, TBL 28.2 | STL 24, TBL 17 |
| Win chance | TBL 62% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.54 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 1 | 1.08 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.4 | 1 | 0.78 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL D. James | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.