Game Recap: STL 5, TOR 1, October 24, 2024

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Game Recap

STL5

FinalThu, Oct 24, 2024Every game that night

TOR1

STL beat TOR 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.90 expected goals to 4.22. TOR outshot STL 41 to 27. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Tavares had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Binnington stopped 40 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	2	1	2	5
TOR	0	1	0	1

1st 4:07STLP. Broberg0.03 xG
1st 10:31STLD. HollowayPP0.17 xG
2nd 6:20TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.03 xG
2nd 7:58STLA. Texier0.13 xG
3rd 3:45STLJ. Neighbours0.11 xG
3rd 16:42STLD. HollowayEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

STLTOR

27Shots on goal41

2.90Expected goals4.22

42Shot attempts85

245v5 shots on goal28

1/2Power play0/4

24Hits21

23Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.90 xGTOR 4.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL26 on goal, 5 scored

TOR41 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	2	0	2	4	1	1	0	0	17:20	0:53
J. Kyrou	RW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	15:51	1:09
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	15:18	1:09
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	15:55	0:53
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:52	1:09
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	3	5	2	+2	4	15:29	1:09
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:53	0:53
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	14:03	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	13:44	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:17	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:49	0:53
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:57	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	2	5	+3	2	22:06	1:09
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	1	2	2	+2	0	21:17	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	3	7	+1	0	26:58	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	2	25:40	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:31	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:00	0:53

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	41	40	1	.976	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	0	16:37	4:36
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	20:20	5:02
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	19:46	4:55
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	18:55	4:54
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:16	3:12
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	17:07	2:55
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:04	2:52
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	2	14:22	3:05
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:13	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:41	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:41	4:32
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	21:57	3:13
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	2	18:43	0:27
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	0	18:23	0:17
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	15:27	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	22	4	.846	58:48	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJordan Binnington STL Plays near home (born in Richmond Hill)40 saves on 41, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, TOR 3.7	STL 5, TOR 1
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	STL 27.7, TOR 34.3	STL 27, TOR 41
Win chance	TOR 60%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.6	3	1.19	0	48%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	4	1.01	0	36%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.3	7	0.80	1	30%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	1	0.87	2	32%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.4	2	1.17	0	31%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	3	0.47	0	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	1	0.81	2	28%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.1	3	0.64	1	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	0	0.55	0	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.1	3	0.63	1	22%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	1	0.52	1	9%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	5	0.40	0	18%	0
STL B. Saad	1.8	2	0.53	1	24%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.8	3	0.40	1	7%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.8	3	0.44	1	23%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.7	3	0.58	0	15%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	2	0.33	0	7%	0
STL A. Texier	1.5	4	0.45	1	18%	1
STL D. Holloway	1.4	4	0.30	2	15%	2
STL M. Joseph	1.3	1	0.37	0	12%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.24	0	13%	0
STL K. Kapanen	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	0	0.21	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.34	0	7%	0
STL R. Suter	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.38	0	5%	0
STL P. Broberg	0.9	1	0.31	1	6%	1
STL R. Faksa	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
STL P. Joseph	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.8	0	0.37	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.