Game Recap: STL 2, TOR 3 (OT), November 18, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

Final/OTTue, Nov 18, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat STL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.83 expected goals to 2.99. J. Kyrou had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Woll stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	1	1	0	0	2
TOR	1	1	0	1	3

1st 1:50STLN. Walker0.47 xG
1st 5:36TORJ. McCabe0.02 xG
2nd 9:32TORS. Lorentz0.13 xG
2nd 13:18STLD. DvorskyPP0.13 xG
OT 4:06TORW. Nylander0.10 xG

Team Stats

STLTOR

29Shots on goal29

2.99Expected goals1.83

64Shot attempts53

245v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/3

18Hits21

12Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.99 xGTOR 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL30 on goal, 2 scored

TOR28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:37	3:11
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	-2	0	13:56	3:06
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	0	4	0	+1	0	12:37	0:07
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	17:40	3:06
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:25	1:57
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	2	17:19	3:11
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:48	1:49
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:36	1:55
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	6	1	1	-1	0	16:13	2:07
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	13:28	0:09
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:19	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	21:46	3:08
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	26:14	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	24:53	0:10
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	21:57	2:04
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:23	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	12:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	29	26	3	.897	64:06	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	23:43	4:01
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	21:19	3:53
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+2	0	15:27	0:07
S. Blais	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	6:31	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	19:34	2:40
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:18	2:59
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:33	3:37
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:26	2:02
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:08	0:03
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	13:45	2:05
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	12:15	2:03
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	9:00	0:06
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	24:37	2:01
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	5	1	3	+1	0	24:13	3:59
J. McCabe	D	1	0	1	2	2	3	+1	4	21:06	0:24
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	21:04	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:36	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	29	28	2	.966	64:06	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway14:10J. Snuggerud14:00R. Thomas13:24

Line 2O. Sundqvist11:35N. Walker11:14A. Toropchenko9:24

Line 3M. Joseph11:09P. Suter13:09B. Schenn14:04

Line 4J. Kyrou12:14D. Dvorsky10:42P. Buchnevich11:01

Pair 1C. Parayko20:01P. Broberg20:33

Pair 2J. Faulk17:44C. Fowler16:18

Pair 3T. Tucker11:39M. Kessel11:39

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares17:32W. Nylander15:24N. Robertson11:40

Line 2E. Cowan12:28M. Domi12:22B. McMann14:15

Line 3D. Joshua12:55S. Lorentz11:19C. Jarnkrok12:18

Line 4M. Maccelli10:12J. Quillan8:54S. Blais6:31

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson19:02M. Rielly17:43

Pair 2J. McCabe17:31S. Benoit16:40

Pair 3D. Mermis13:43T. Stecher13:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJordan Binnington STL Plays near home (born in Richmond Hill)26 saves on 29
HometownRobert Thomas STL Plays near home (born in Aurora)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, TOR 3.2	STL 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	STL 26.7, TOR 27.1	STL 29, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	4	0.98	1	36%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	3	1.19	1	40%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	6	0.69	0	28%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	3	0.64	0	23%	0
TOR N. Robertson	2.0	1	0.51	0	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	0	0.71	0	24%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.8	5	0.54	0	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.7	4	0.38	0	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.49	0	9%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	1	0.50	0	21%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	5	0.65	1	11%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	2	0.44	0	11%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.42	0	15%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.87	1	20%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.42	0	10%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	2	0.55	0	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.49	1	9%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	1	0.59	1	9%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	2	0.46	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	0	0.47	0	15%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	3	0.26	1	14%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.31	0	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.28	1	13%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.39	1	6%	1
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.24	1	10%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	2	0.32	0	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	1	0.27	0	13%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	2	0.13	0	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR S. Blais	0.6	0	0.20	1	7%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.